Here are our AFL picks for Monday 17 August 2026. Our model likes 6 bets here. The one it likes most is Adelaide Crows vs Greater Western Sydney Giants: Under 25.5 team_totals_q1, priced at -116 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.
Adelaide Crows vs Greater Western Sydney Giants: Under 25.5 team_totals_q1 (-116)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
The Adelaide Crows square off against the Greater Western Sydney Giants in a clash set to ignite Adelaide Oval. The Crows have been flying high at home, consistently notching up impressive inside 50s and shots at goal in their last 5 games. However, the Giants have been stalwart on defense lately, holding their opponents to an average of 76.4 points in their last 5 away games. This defensive prowess could stifle the Crows' attacking prowess, potentially keeping their Q1 total under the set line of 25.5. With the Crows averaging around 82.2 points in their recent home games and the Giants conceding only 79.2 points on average overall, the stage is set for a tight opening quarter where goals might be harder to snag. The data hints at a low-scoring Q1, making the 'Under 25.5' bet for the Adelaide Crows a tantalizing prospect.
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
The Melbourne Demons hosting the Western Bulldogs at the iconic MCG promises a showdown filled with electrifying footy action. Looking at the recent form, the Demons have been solid at home, averaging 94.6 points for and 90.6 points against in their last five games. Meanwhile, the Bulldogs have been a force to reckon with on the road, keeping games tight with an average margin of -5.4 and conceding just 70.8 points. With the Bulldogs' defensive prowess and the Demons' scoring ability, the +16.5 line seems favorable for the underdog. Expect a fierce battle where the Bulldogs could keep it tight or even snag a surprise win, making this a compelling bet to consider.
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Alright, footy fanatics, let's dive into the clash between the St Kilda Saints and the Gold Coast Suns at Marvel Stadium. The Saints are hosting, but recent stats suggest the Suns could shine bright with a +10.5 spread. St Kilda's home form hasn't been stellar, averaging a -13.2 margin in their last five games at Marvel. They've struggled to hit the scoreboard, managing just 76.8 points per game on average. Meanwhile, Gold Coast may be away, but they've been gritty, limiting opponents to 95.2 points on average in their last five away fixtures. With the Suns showing a tighter defense and the Saints struggling to convert opportunities, backing Gold Coast at +10.5 could be a savvy move in this matchup. Keep your eyes on the Suns to cover the spread and potentially snag a win in Melbourne.
Melbourne Demons vs Western Bulldogs: Under 24.5 team_totals_q1 (-109)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
When the Melbourne Demons clash with the Western Bulldogs at the iconic MCG, the stage is set for a defensive battle in the first quarter. The Demons, boasting an impressive average of 58.8 inside 50s and 31.4 shots on goal per game in their last five home matches, are hungry for an early lead. However, the Bulldogs have been staunch on the road, conceding just 70.8 points on average in their last five away games and a mere 72.6 overall. With the Demons averaging 13.8 target goals and 94.6 points in their recent home matchups, and the Bulldogs' solid defensive record, all signs point to a tight and low-scoring opening quarter. Expect both teams to lock horns fiercely, making the 'Under 24.5' on the Team Totals Q1 market for the Demons a wise choice for punters.
Melbourne Demons vs Western Bulldogs: Melbourne Demons -16.5 (-111)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
The Melbourne Demons are red hot coming into this clash against the Western Bulldogs at the iconic MCG. Over their last five games, the Demons have been on a scoring spree, averaging a whopping 108.6 points per game. Their forward line has been on fire, hitting the target for an average of 16.4 goals per game. On the defensive end, they've been solid, conceding just 91.2 points on average. When playing at home, they've dominated with an average winning margin of 17.4 points. In contrast, the Western Bulldogs have struggled on the road, averaging just 65.4 points per game and leaking 72.6 points on average. With Melbourne's offensive firepower and strong home form, backing them to cover the spread of -16.5 points looks like a smart play for this matchup.
Adelaide Crows vs Greater Western Sydney Giants: Adelaide Crows -6.5 spreads_q2 (-109)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
When it comes to the Adelaide Crows hosting the Greater Western Sydney Giants at Adelaide Oval, the numbers paint a clear picture. The Crows have been asserting their dominance, especially at home, with an impressive 15.4 average margin in their last five home games. Their goal-scoring prowess is evident, averaging 82.2 points and 24.8 shots on goal per game during this period. On the flip side, the Giants have shown vulnerability on the road, conceding an average of 76.4 points and struggling to contain opposition inside 50s. With the Giants averaging just 7.8 in margin for their last five away games, the Crows seem poised to capitalize on their home advantage and cover the -6.5 spread comfortably. Expect Adelaide to kick through the big sticks and secure a decisive victory.
That is the model's read on today's AFL card. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.
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