On Wednesday 9 September 2026, Venezia play Fiorentina in Serie A. Our model likes 3 bets here. The one it likes most is Fiorentina +2.5 Goal Handicap, priced at -5000 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.
Venezia vs Fiorentina: Fiorentina +2.5 Goal Handicap (-5000)
Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing As Venezia faces Fiorentina, the recent form heavily leans towards the visitors. Venezia’s struggles at home are glaring; they've gone winless in their last five, averaging just 0.8 goals while conceding a staggering 2.6. They’ve shown little creativity, reflected by an xG of zero in their last five matches. On the flip side, Fiorentina, despite their own erratic away form, have a historical edge, having claimed two wins and a draw in their last five encounters with Venezia. Though both teams are misfiring, Fiorentina typically creates more chances and has a better scoring record, averaging 1.8 goals per game against similar opponents. Given Venezia's inability to keep the goals out and Fiorentina's slight uptick in performance, backing Fiorentina to cover the 2.5 handicap seems like a sound strategy in this matchup.
Venezia vs Fiorentina: Venezia +3.5 Goal Handicap (-10000)
Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing As Venezia prepares to host Fiorentina, it's hard to overlook the trend of recent performances. While Venezia has struggled overall, their home form shows promise, with two wins in their last five matchups at home. Their ability to hold opponents to just 1.6 goals per game at home indicates a sturdy defense, despite their overall low scoring averages. Fiorentina, on the other hand, has been inconsistent, with just one win in their last five away games. Their scoring woes are evident, averaging only 0.8 goals on the road. With both teams producing low xG numbers recently, it’s likely we’ll see a tight contest. Taking Venezia at a handicap of 3.5 seems favorable here; they have a historical edge against Fiorentina, and given the current form, they could very well secure a narrow win. In a match that could be defined by defensive resilience, Venezia has the potential to surprise.
Venezia vs Fiorentina: Fiorentina +1.5 Goal Handicap (-1111)
Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing As Venezia gears up to face Fiorentina, the contrast in recent performances is striking. Venezia hasn’t tasted victory in their last five home matches, scoring a mere 0.8 goals on average while conceding 1.6. Their attack is struggling, with a shocking expected goals (xG) output hovering around zero. Meanwhile, Fiorentina, despite their own ups and downs, has shown resilience, particularly against Venezia in their last five encounters, with a record of 1-1-2. They’ve averaged 1 goal on the road, and their xG stats suggest they’re likely to find the net, especially against a porous Venezia defense conceding 2.6 goals per game. With Fiorentina's ability to overcome their opponents and a history of success in this matchup, backing them to cover a 1.5 handicap looks promising. Expect Fiorentina to capitalize on Venezia's struggles and secure a comfortable win.
That is how our model reads Venezia v Fiorentina. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.