On Tuesday 22 September 2026, Phoenix Mercury play Dallas Wings in the WNBA. Our model likes 5 bets here. The one it likes most is Phoenix Mercury +6 on the Line, priced at -110 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.
Phoenix Mercury +6 on the Line (-110)
Odds available at MyBookie at time of publishing
The Phoenix Mercury have struggled lately, winning only two of their last six games. They've faced a tough schedule, playing against teams with a solid overall record. On the other hand, the Dallas Wings are on a hot streak, winning six games in a row and scoring a ton of points, averaging over 89 a game. This matchup looks pretty close, which is why I like the Mercury to cover the spread of +6. They'll be playing at home, which gives them a bit of a boost. However, Dallas has been playing really well, so that's a concrete risk to consider. With both teams in different forms, this game could be tighter than expected. It was priced at -110 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $19.10 if it lands. The number next to the team is the handicap, and that team's score is adjusted by it before the bet is settled. The bookmakers have this as a slight favourite. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
Under 171.5 Total Points (+108)
Odds available at William Hill at time of publishing
For the total points to go under 171.5 tonight, both teams need to keep scoring low. The Phoenix Mercury have struggled recently, winning only 3 of their last 10 games and allowing a lot of three-point attempts. Meanwhile, the Dallas Wings have scored well in their recent games, but they also have a tendency to grind out games. Our numbers show a combined total around 167.4, so there's a good chance this game stays under. The biggest risk is that both teams could surprise with their scoring, but based on recent performances, staying under looks promising. It was priced at +108 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $20.80 if it lands. This is an alternate line, so it is not the main number on the board and the price moves with it. This one is priced as an outside chance. Our model leans this way without loving it. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing
Tonight, we need Alyssa Thomas to score 14 points or less against the Dallas Wings. This is a solid pick because Thomas has been facing tough defenses lately, and Dallas has been on a roll, winning six games in a row. They are playing really well and have been holding opponents down, which makes it harder for any player to rack up points. The risk here is that Thomas can sometimes surprise us, especially if she finds a rhythm. However, with the Wings playing strong basketball and Thomas likely to see a lot of defensive attention, it makes sense to think she might not hit that mark tonight. Given the stats and the form of both teams, this bet has a good chance of hitting. It was priced at -110 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $19.10 if it lands. The bookmakers have this as a slight favourite. Our model leans this way without loving it. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing
Paige Bueckers has been on fire lately, helping her team score big. The Dallas Wings are winning a lot, and they score almost 90 points per game. That means there are plenty of chances for Paige to dish out assists. She's been really involved in the game, and with Dallas pushing the pace, she should get more opportunities to set up her teammates. The Phoenix Mercury have faced tough opponents lately, and that could affect how they play. The risk is that if the game turns into a blowout, Paige might not play as many minutes. Still, with the way both teams are playing, I think she can get over 5.5 assists. It's a close call, but the chances are looking good. It was priced at +108 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $20.80 if it lands. This one is priced as an outside chance. Our model has this as a long shot, so keep the stake small. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
Kahleah Copper Over 22.5 Points and Rebounds (-112)
Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing
Phoenix Mercury are struggling lately, winning just 3 of their last 10 games. They've faced the second toughest schedule in the league, which makes it even harder for them right now. On the other hand, the Dallas Wings are on fire, winning 7 of their last 10 and scoring an impressive 89.1 points a game. Kahleah Copper has a good chance to shine in this matchup, especially with the way Dallas is playing. The Wings have been feeding her the ball, and she's been grabbing plenty of rebounds. However, the Mercury's defense might put up a fight, making this a tricky game. Still, if Copper keeps her rhythm, going over 22.5 points and rebounds seems likely. It was priced at -112 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $18.90 if it lands. The bookmakers have this as a slight favourite. Our model leans this way without loving it. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
That is how our model reads Phoenix Mercury v Dallas Wings. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.
Unlock the rest of this one
You're reading the free preview. One plan unlocks the full article and every pick we back — every league, every day.
Unlock the full article