On Tuesday 22 September 2026, Phoenix Mercury play Dallas Wings in the WNBA. Our model likes 5 bets here. The one it likes most is Under 172 Total Points, priced at -110 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.
Under 172 Total Points (-110)
Odds available at Fanatics at time of publishing
The bet needs the total points to stay under 172 when Phoenix Mercury face off against Dallas Wings. The Wings have been on fire, winning their last six games and scoring nearly 90 points a game. However, the Mercury have struggled lately, winning only 3 of their last 10. They've also faced one of the toughest schedules in the league, which makes it harder for them to put up big numbers. With both teams playing a different style, it's likely that the game won't be a scoring frenzy. The expected combined total is around 167, which is a good indicator that this could be a lower-scoring game. The biggest risk here is how well the Wings have been scoring lately. Still, given the Mercury's challenges, sticking to under 172 seems like a smart choice. It was priced at -110 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $19.10 if it lands. The bookmakers have this as a slight favourite. Our model leans this way without loving it. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
Phoenix Mercury +6 on the Line (-108)
Odds available at LowVig at time of publishing
The Phoenix Mercury have struggled lately, winning only two of their last six games. They've faced a tough schedule, playing against teams with a solid overall record. On the other hand, the Dallas Wings are on a hot streak, winning six games in a row and scoring a ton of points, averaging over 89 a game. This matchup looks pretty close, which is why I like the Mercury to cover the spread of +6. They'll be playing at home, which gives them a bit of a boost. However, Dallas has been playing really well, so that's a concrete risk to consider. With both teams in different forms, this game could be tighter than expected. It was priced at -108 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $19.30 if it lands. The number next to the team is the handicap, and that team's score is adjusted by it before the bet is settled. The bookmakers have this as a slight favourite. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing
Tonight, we need Alyssa Thomas to score 14 points or less against the Dallas Wings. This is a solid pick because Thomas has been facing tough defenses lately, and Dallas has been on a roll, winning six games in a row. They are playing really well and have been holding opponents down, which makes it harder for any player to rack up points. The risk here is that Thomas can sometimes surprise us, especially if she finds a rhythm. However, with the Wings playing strong basketball and Thomas likely to see a lot of defensive attention, it makes sense to think she might not hit that mark tonight. Given the stats and the form of both teams, this bet has a good chance of hitting. It was priced at -110 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $19.10 if it lands. The bookmakers have this as a slight favourite. Our model leans this way without loving it. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
Arike Ogunbowale Over 19.5 Points and Assists (-110)
Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing
Arike Ogunbowale is on fire right now, scoring and assisting like a superstar. She's been part of a Dallas Wings team that has won six games in a row, averaging almost 90 points per game. Meanwhile, the Phoenix Mercury have had a tough time lately, winning only three of their last ten games against very strong opponents. This matchup is a challenge for them, especially with the Wings' current scoring form. Betting on Ogunbowale to get over 19.5 points and assists makes sense, given how well she's been playing. However, the Mercury could surprise, as they've been known to step up at home. It was priced at -110 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $19.10 if it lands. The bookmakers have this as a slight favourite. Our model leans this way without loving it. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing
Jessica Shepard has been playing with the Dallas Wings, who are on a hot streak, winning their last six games and scoring a lot. However, she has been a bit quieter lately, and with the Mercury's tough schedule, they might focus on shutting her down. The Mercury have faced some really strong teams, which could make it hard for Shepard to rack up assists. That said, this game is pretty close overall, so there's no guarantee here. The biggest risk is that Shepard could surprise everyone and get her passing game going against a team that's been struggling. Still, betting on her to have under 4.5 assists seems like a solid choice given the circumstances. It was priced at +108 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $20.80 if it lands. This one is priced as an outside chance. Our model has this as a long shot, so keep the stake small. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
That is how our model reads Phoenix Mercury v Dallas Wings. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.
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