On Saturday 10 October 2026, Niko Price takes on Leon Shahbazyan in the UFC. Our model likes 2 bets here. The one it likes most is Niko Price to Win, priced at +140 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.

Niko Price to Win (+140)

Odds correct at time of publishing

Niko Price needs to outlast Leon Shahbazyan and find a way to land his powerful strikes. He's known for his finishing ability, which could give him the upper hand if the fight gets intense. Price has a solid chance tonight, especially since he's an underdog with a real shot to win. One thing to watch is that both fighters are close in durability, meaning either could take a lot of hits. Still, Price's experience and knack for knocking opponents out could be the difference. He's got what it takes to pull off the upset, so let's see if he can do it! It was priced at +140 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $24 if it lands. This one is priced as an outside chance. Our model has this as a long shot, so keep the stake small. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Over 1.5 Total Rounds (+185)

Odds correct at time of publishing

Niko Price is known for his striking and can finish fights quickly, while Leon Shahbazyan has solid wrestling skills and can control the pace. This matchup is tricky because both fighters have the tools to end the fight early, but they also have shown the ability to stay in longer battles. That makes it a close call on how long this fight will last. Betting on over 1.5 rounds seems like a smart choice here. With our numbers showing it's nearly a coin flip, there's a good chance they'll both take their time to figure each other out. The biggest risk is that either fighter could land a big blow and finish it fast, but if they feel each other out, we could see a more drawn-out contest. It was priced at +185 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $28.50 if it lands. This one is priced as an outside chance. Our model has this as a long shot, so keep the stake small. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

The tale of the tape:

  • Niko Price: last five L-L-L-L-W, dropped the last 4, 14% of career wins came by knockout, 196 days since the last fight
  • Leon Shahbazyan: last five L-L, dropped the last 2, 0% of career wins came by knockout, 112 days since the last fight

That is how our model reads Niko Price v Leon Shahbazyan. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.

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