On Sunday 27 September 2026, Minnesota Lynx play New York Liberty in the WNBA. Our model likes 5 bets here. The one it likes most is Under 171.5 Total Points, priced at +110 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.
Under 171.5 Total Points (+110)
Odds available at Fanatics at time of publishing
The Minnesota Lynx are scoring a strong 91.3 points a game lately, but they also have a solid defense that can hold teams back. The New York Liberty have faced one of the toughest schedules this season, which makes their scoring numbers a bit lower. With both teams showing some good defensive plays, the combined score is likely to stay under 171.5 points. The biggest risk here is that New York has been playing well too, winning four of their last six games. Overall, it feels like there's a good chance this pick will hit. It was priced at +110 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $21 if it lands. This is an alternate line, so it is not the main number on the board and the price moves with it. This one is priced as an outside chance. Our model leans this way without loving it. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
New York Liberty +7 on the Line (-110)
Odds available at MyBookie at time of publishing
The Minnesota Lynx have been strong lately, winning 7 of their last 10 games. However, the New York Liberty also have a solid record, winning 6 of their last 10 and 4 of their last 6. They've faced tough teams, which shows they can handle pressure. Plus, they have a travel advantage, having less distance to cover compared to Minnesota. Betting on New York Liberty to cover the spread of 7 points makes sense here. The teams are closely matched, and our numbers suggest a final score difference of only about 2 points. The Lynx have been good, but the Liberty can put up a fight. It was priced at -110 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $19.10 if it lands. The number next to the team is the handicap, and that team's score is adjusted by it before the bet is settled. The bookmakers have this as a slight favourite. Our model leans this way without loving it. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing
Betting on Breanna Stewart to score under 21.5 points at -108 seems like a solid choice. The Minnesota Lynx are in great form, winning 7 of their last 10 games and scoring an impressive 91.3 points a game. In contrast, the New York Liberty have had a tougher schedule, facing teams with a combined winning record. This could limit scoring opportunities for Stewart, especially since she tends to score a bit less when playing away from home. One thing to consider is that while Stewart is a strong player, she averages about 8.3 rebounds at away games, which shows she might focus more on assisting and rebounding rather than just scoring. With the Lynx's strong defense and Stewart's away numbers, it looks like a good chance for her to stay under that point total. It was priced at -110 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $19.10 if it lands. The bookmakers have this as a slight favourite. Our model leans this way without loving it. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing
Jonquel Jones has been a star for the New York Liberty, but her performance dips when she plays away from home. At home, she averages 2.3 assists, but on the road, that number drops to only 1.2. This means she's less likely to dish out assists in this game against the Minnesota Lynx. The Lynx have been strong lately, winning 7 of their last 10 games. They've been playing well on both ends of the court, making it tougher for opponents to score. With Jonquel's recent struggles away, betting on her to get under 2.5 assists seems like a smart move. It was priced at +111 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $21.10 if it lands. This one is priced as an outside chance. Our model leans this way without loving it. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
Kayla McBride Under 19.5 Points and Rebounds (-109)
Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing
The odds for Kayla McBride to score under 19.5 points and rebounds looks appealing. Our numbers show a solid chance for this bet, especially since Minnesota has been a bit inconsistent lately, winning only two of their last six games. Plus, the Liberty's strong defense could make it tough for McBride to rack up stats. One key risk is that both teams are coming off good runs, with New York winning four of their last six games. However, McBride's recent performance hasn't been as strong, and she might struggle to keep up against the Liberty's tough defense. Overall, taking the under seems like a smart choice for this matchup at Target Center. It was priced at -109 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $19.20 if it lands. The bookmakers have this as a slight favourite. Our model leans this way without loving it. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
That is how our model reads Minnesota Lynx v New York Liberty. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.
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