Minnesota Lynx vs New York Liberty Prediction & Picks (Breanna Stewart Key Factor): Odds Analysis & Top Props

Both the Minnesota Lynx and New York Liberty have been playing solid defense lately, which makes me think they might struggle to score big in this game. We're betting on the total points being under 187.5 because our numbers suggest a combined total around 162.9. Plus, the Liberty have a bit of travel fatigue, which can affect their performance. The close win percentages hint that this could be a tight game, but with both teams focusing on defense, I really like the under on points here. It was priced at -263 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $13.80 if it lands. This is an alternate line, so it is not the main number on the board and the price moves with it. The bookmakers have this as a clear favourite. Our model likes this one a lot. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Breanna Stewart Under 22.5 Points and Assists (-110)

Breanna Stewart needs to score points and give assists, but we're betting she will keep it under 22.5 tonight against the Minnesota Lynx. Lately, she has been making fewer field goals than usual, averaging about six instead of a typical six and a half. Plus, her team tends to struggle with turnovers, which could limit her chances to rack up assists. The Lynx play solid defense, which can make it tough for Stewart to shine. Though she's had some success against them, the numbers suggest she might not hit her usual mark tonight. Keep an eye on the game, as it could go either way. It was priced at -110 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $19.10 if it lands. The bookmakers have this as a slight favourite. Our model leans this way without loving it. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Jonquel Jones Under 16.5 Points and Assists (-110)

Jonquel Jones is a talented player, but she hasn't been putting up huge numbers lately. In her recent games, her points and assists combined have been lower than usual, averaging just under 16.5. The Minnesota Lynx have a strong defense, which can make it tough for her to get high scores, especially at home in Target Center where they play hard. The risk here is that Jones can surprise everyone and have a breakout game, but given her recent performance and the way the Lynx defend, betting on her to score under 16.5 points and assists makes sense. This matchup feels pretty close, so while there's no guarantee, the numbers suggest this is a smart pick. It was priced at -110 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $19.10 if it lands. The bookmakers have this as a slight favourite. Our model leans this way without loving it. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Kayla McBride Over 20.5 Points and Rebounds (-109)

Kayla McBride has been on a roll lately, showing strong scoring and rebounding skills that make this bet look promising. At home in the Target Center, she's been averaging more free throws made and attempted than usual, which points to her being aggressive on offense. Plus, her recent performance shows she's getting more assists and steals, adding to her overall contributions. The biggest risk here is that Minnesota's strong defense could limit her opportunities. Still, with the way she's playing, going over 20.5 points and rebounds seems like a solid choice. It was priced at -109 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $19.20 if it lands. This is an alternate line, so it is not the main number on the board and the price moves with it. The bookmakers have this as a slight favourite. Our model leans this way without loving it. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

That is how our model reads Minnesota Lynx v New York Liberty. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.