On Saturday 17 October 2026, Liverpool play Brighton and Hove Albion in the EPL. Our model likes 2 bets here. The one it likes most is Liverpool Draw No Bet, priced at -172 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.
Odds correct at time of publishing
As Liverpool gears up to host Brighton, the landscape is painted with intriguing trends. While the Reds have struggled recently at Anfield, recording just two wins in their last five home games, they’ve consistently been a dominant force against the Seagulls. Brighton’s own inconsistency leaves them vulnerable, especially with their defensive frailties that have seen them concede an average of 1.4 goals per game away. Liverpool’s recent xG numbers have been underwhelming, but the sheer volume of shots—averaging over 14 per match—suggests they’re on the cusp of breaking through. Moreover, with Brighton's defense allowing 0 xG recently, it could be a perfect storm for Liverpool to capitalize on at home. The Draw No Bet market provides a safety net, allowing for a Liverpool win without the full risk, making it a compelling choice as they look to regain form and reclaim their status at the top.
Liverpool vs Brighton and Hove Albion: Over 1.5 Total Goals (-588)
Odds correct at time of publishing
As Liverpool prepares to host Brighton, the stage is set for a thrilling encounter. While the Reds haven’t quite found their scoring groove lately, averaging just one goal per game over the last five matches, the sheer volume of chances they create—averaging over 12 shots with nearly five on target—underscores their attacking intent. Brighton, known for their fluid play, has consistently found ways to breach defenses, making this matchup ripe for goals. Both teams have shown a tendency to concede, with Liverpool allowing 1.4 goals per game at home. Considering Brighton's knack for scoring against tougher opponents, it’s hard to see this match ending with fewer than two goals. Expect an open game where both sides push for the win, making the Over 1.5 goals bet not just plausible, but likely.
That is how our model reads Liverpool v Brighton and Hove Albion. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.
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