On Friday 2 October 2026, Las Vegas Aces play Indiana Fever in the WNBA. Our model likes 4 bets here. The one it likes most is Under 188.5 Total Points, priced at -238 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.
Under 188.5 Total Points (-238)
Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing
The Las Vegas Aces are scoring an impressive 91.6 points a game and have won their last six games, showing they know how to put points on the board. However, the Indiana Fever have been scoring 98.0 points a game in their recent matches, which makes this matchup interesting. Despite both teams being capable scorers, our numbers suggest a total around 167.6 points, so betting on under 188.5 seems smart. The biggest risk is that both teams might find a scoring rhythm, but with the Aces' strong recent form, it's likely they'll control the pace of the game. It was priced at -238 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $14.20 if it lands. This is an alternate line, so it is not the main number on the board and the price moves with it. The bookmakers have this as a clear favourite. Our model likes this one a lot. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
Jackie Young Under 25.5 Points and Rebounds (-110)
Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing
Jackie Young is on fire lately, averaging over 20 points in night games, which is impressive. However, the Las Vegas Aces are scoring a ton, and with their strong winning streak, they might not need her to do as much. She's been averaging just under 25 combined points and rebounds in her recent performances, making this bet seem pretty reasonable. The Indiana Fever have been scoring well too, but they have only won 5 of their last 10 games. The Aces' defense could limit Young's overall stats, especially if they get ahead early. There's a solid chance this bet could hit, but with both teams having some scoring power, it's always a bit risky. It was priced at -110 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $19.10 if it lands. The bookmakers have this as a slight favourite. Our model leans this way without loving it. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing
Caitlin Clark has been playing well lately, but she faces a tough matchup against the Las Vegas Aces. The Aces have won six games in a row, and they are known for their strong defense. Clark averages about 9 assists per game but tends to have a bit less success when playing away. In this game, she's up against a team that makes it harder for opponents to rack up assists. Even though she can score a lot, the Aces will likely limit her ability to dish out assists. With the Aces playing at home and having a solid winning streak, it's reasonable to think Clark might stay under 8.5 assists in this game. It was priced at +109 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $20.90 if it lands. This one is priced as an outside chance. Our model has this as a long shot, so keep the stake small. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
Kelsey Mitchell Under 26.5 Points and Assists (-111)
Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing
Kelsey Mitchell has been scoring well, averaging more than 26 points in her recent games. However, in daylight games, her average drops to about 23 points. With Las Vegas Aces winning six games in a row and scoring an impressive 91.6 points on average, they are tough competition. This might limit the chances for Mitchell to put up big numbers against them. The Aces' strong defense could also make it challenging for her to hit over 26.5 combined points and assists. Plus, Indiana Fever has only won 5 of their last 10 games, showing they're not in top form. So, while Mitchell is a talented player, the matchup suggests she might fall short of that total today. It was priced at -111 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $19.00 if it lands. The bookmakers have this as a slight favourite. Our model leans this way without loving it. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
That is how our model reads Las Vegas Aces v Indiana Fever. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.
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