Ismael Bonfim vs Francisco Prado Prediction & Picks: Don't Miss These Odds

On Sunday 11 October 2026, Ismael Bonfim takes on Francisco Prado in the UFC. Our model likes one bet here. The one it likes most is Francisco Prado to Win, priced at +105 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.

Francisco Prado to Win (+105)

Francisco Prado needs to outlast Ismael Bonfim in their fight tonight. Prado has shown solid durability, which could help him handle Bonfim's striking. Both fighters are quite evenly matched, making this a tough contest, but Prado's ability to take hits might give him the advantage he needs. Prado is younger, which often helps fighters perform better as they tend to recover faster. While both guys are tough, Bonfim's striking could be a problem if he lands clean shots. Overall, though, Prado seems likely to find a way to win this close battle, but it won't be easy. It was priced at +105 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $20.50 if it lands. This one is priced as an outside chance. Our model has this as a long shot, so keep the stake small. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

The tale of the tape:

• Ismael Bonfim: last five L-L-L-W-L, dropped the last 3, 4% of career wins came by knockout, 70 days since the last fight
• Francisco Prado: last five L-L-L-L-W, dropped the last 4, 6% of career wins came by knockout, 175 days since the last fight

That is how our model reads Ismael Bonfim v Francisco Prado. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.