On Thursday 15 October 2026, Everton play Chelsea in the EPL. Our model likes 2 bets here. The one it likes most is Everton +0.75 Goal Handicap, priced at -200 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.
Odds correct at time of publishing
As Everton prepares to host Chelsea, the Toffees are showing signs of life, particularly at Goodison Park where they've managed a more respectable 2-2-1 record in their last five home games. They've averaged around 1.8 goals per match at home, indicating a steady attack, while their defense has been just sturdy enough to keep opponents to 1.6 goals. Chelsea, on the other hand, has been struggling on the road, conceding an average of 2 goals away from home and displaying a concerning trend with a lack of clinical finishing. With the expected goals (xG) stats revealing both teams hitting a wash, but Everton's home advantage could tip the scales. Given their recent form and Chelsea's vulnerabilities, taking Everton with a 0.75 handicap feels like a smart play. The Toffees are poised to capitalize on Chelsea's defensive lapses while leveraging their home turf to secure a positive result.
Everton vs Chelsea: Over 8.5 Total Corners (-238)
Odds correct at time of publishing
As Everton welcomes Chelsea, expect a flurry of corner kicks in what promises to be an intense matchup. Everton's recent home games have averaged around 15.8 shots, suggesting a proactive attacking approach, which often leads to corners. Their last five matches have seen them earn an average of 2.4 corners at home, while Chelsea, who are no strangers to pushing forward, have averaged 2.8 corners away in their last outings. With both teams struggling for consistency, particularly in defense, they will likely have to rely on high-pressure tactics to secure points. Given Everton's need to capitalize on home advantage and Chelsea's attacking prowess, surpassing the 8.5 corners line feels very feasible. The stats back up a lively encounter that should see plenty of action from the flanks, leading to a good number of corners. Don't be surprised if this one sails over the line!
That is how our model reads Everton v Chelsea. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.
Unlock the rest of this one
You're reading the free preview. One plan unlocks the full article and every pick we back — every league, every day.
Unlock the full article