Joe Burrow (CIN) Over 4.5 Player rush yds alternate (-139)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

Betting on Joe Burrow to rush for over 4.5 yards is supported by several key statistics. Firstly, Burrow has a strong history of surpassing this mark against the Ravens. He's succeeded in 5 of the last 6 games against Baltimore, and 2 out of the last 3 when playing at home. His overall home record also bolsters the case for this bet, with 15 successful bets out of 22 overall and 7 out of the last 10. His recent form, however, does raise some concerns. He's failed to hit this mark in his last 5 attempts overall and his last 3 at home. Despite this, the historical trends lean in favor of this bet. It's worth noting that the model also provides a small edge of approximately 8.6%, suggesting that the odds offered may undervalue the true likelihood of this outcome. In summary, while recent form isn't ideal, Burrow's historical performance at

Cincinnati Bengals vs Baltimore Ravens : Over 50.5 Total Points (-110)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

The reasoning for the bet on Over 50.5 in the 'totals' market is based on the scoring trends and offensive performance of both teams. The home team has averaged 28 points over their last five games, and the away team has averaged 21.8 points, totaling 49.8, which is just below the Over/Under line. However, considering home games specifically, the home team's average score increases to 31.4 points, and the away team's to 27.6 points, for a total of 59 points, well above the line. Furthermore, both teams have shown an ability to create explosive plays, with the home team having an explosive rate of 23% and the away team 20.2%, which can contribute to higher scoring games. While the home team has had a negative point differential in recent games (-4 overall, -4.6 at home), the away team has had a positive differential (+1 overall, +3.

Cincinnati Bengals vs Baltimore Ravens : Over 51.5 Total Points (-115)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

The over bet of 51.5 points in the totals market for the game is supported by several key statistics. Firstly, the home team has been involved in fairly high-scoring games recently, averaging 28 points for and 32 points against over their last five games. Similarly, the away team has scored an average of 21.8 points and conceded 20.8 points in their previous five games. When combining these averages, the total points per game exceeds the 51.5 point threshold for both teams, suggesting a probability of a high-scoring game. Additionally, both teams have shown a propensity for explosive plays, with the home and away teams having explosive rates of 0.230 and 0.202 respectively. Finally, the model edge of 0.0697 suggests that there is a statistical advantage to betting on the over outcome. Thus, based on recent performance and statistical analysis, the over 51.5 bet is reasonable.

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