Here are our Tennis picks for Tuesday 29 September 2026. Our model likes 2 bets here. The one it likes most is Tallon Griekspoor to win the match, priced at +181 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.

Tallon Griekspoor vs Andrey Rublev: Tallon Griekspoor to win the match (+181)

Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing

Tallon Griekspoor faces Andrey Rublev at China Open on Wednesday 30 September 2026. They are playing on a hard court. This is a match winner bet, so it lands if Tallon Griekspoor wins the match. It was priced at +181 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $28.10 if it lands. Our model has this one as a long shot, so treat it as a small punt. Tallon Griekspoor presents significant value at odds of 2.81 against Andrey Rublev due to superior recent form and serve performance on hard courts. Griekspoor's last five matches show a solid 60% win rate, backed by a first-serve percentage of 61.31% and first-point win percentage of 73.52%. In contrast, Rublev's serve has been less effective, with a first-serve percentage of 60.92% and lower first-point win percentage at 73.16%. 67.09%). Additionally, Griekspoor's break point save percentage is competitive at 39.71%. With Rublev struggling with a higher average double fault rate (3.44%), Griekspoor’s strong serving and recent form indicate he can capitalize on pressure moments, making him the value pick in

Roman Safiullin vs Flavio Cobolli: Flavio Cobolli to win the match (-128)

Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing

Roman Safiullin faces Flavio Cobolli at China Open on Wednesday 30 September 2026. They are playing on a hard court. This is a match winner bet, so it lands if Flavio Cobolli wins the match. It was priced at -128 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $17.80 if it lands. Our model leans this way without loving it. Flavio Cobolli offers strong value at 1.78 against Roman Safiullin, supported by key performance indicators. Cobolli boasts an impressive 80% win rate over his last five matches, coupled with a solid 56.1% first-serve percentage and 69.9% points won on his first serve. His second-serve performance is also notable, winning 53.5% of those points, which indicates reliability under pressure. Additionally, Cobolli’s overall serve points won rate stands at 62.8%, while his break point save percentage at 41.1% demonstrates resilience in critical situations. Given that Cobolli's recent form significantly outpaces Safiullin's, who has not shown comparable statistics, Cobolli emerges as the more consistent performer on hard courts. Thus, Cobolli is the value side for this matchup.

That is the model's read on today's Tennis card. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.

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