Here are our Tennis picks for Thursday 10 September 2026. Our model likes 2 bets here. The one it likes most is Alexander Zverev to win the match, priced at -435 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.

Alexander Zverev vs Karen Khachanov: Alexander Zverev to win the match (-435)

Odds available at Betfair at time of publishing

Alexander Zverev faces Karen Khachanov at US Open on Friday 11 September 2026. They are playing on a hard court. This is a match winner bet, so it lands if Alexander Zverev wins the match. It was priced at -435 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $12.30 if it lands. Our model likes this one a lot. Alexander Zverev presents strong value at odds of 1.23 against Karen Khachanov in their upcoming hard court match at the US Open. Zverev's recent form is impressive, boasting a win rate of 80% over his last five matches, compared to Khachanov's lower win rate. Khachanov's recent serve points won percentage of 70.5% and his 35.4% breakpoint save rate suggest vulnerability under pressure, particularly against a player of Zverev's caliber. Moreover, Zverev's potential to capitalize on Khachanov's service games, combined with his superior competitive form, enhances his probability of winning (86.4% model probability vs. 81.3% implied). This statistical discrepancy underlines Zverev as the value side.

Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula: Aryna Sabalenka to win the match (-179)

Odds available at Betfair at time of publishing

Aryna Sabalenka faces Jessica Pegula at US Open on Thursday 10 September 2026. They are playing on a hard court. This is a match winner bet, so it lands if Aryna Sabalenka wins the match. It was priced at -179 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $15.60 if it lands. Our model likes this one a lot. Aryna Sabalenka presents value at odds of 1.56 against Jessica Pegula, primarily due to her superior recent form and serve performance on hard courts. Sabalenka boasts an impressive 80% win rate in her last five matches, indicating strong momentum compared to Pegula. While exact serve stats are missing, Sabalenka's ability to dominate in pressure points is emphasized by her higher average in key metrics against Pegula's recent averages. Pegula has a 56.6% break point save rate and a lower second serve points won percentage (46.5%), suggesting vulnerability under pressure. Moreover, Pegula's defensive stats indicate she struggles against aggressive opponents, which Sabalenka embodies. 64.1% implied), backing her offers a solid value play in this matchup.

That is the model's read on today's Tennis card. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.

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