Here are our Tennis picks for Saturday 5 September 2026. Our model likes 2 bets here. The one it likes most is Alexander Zverev vs Alejandro Tabilo: Alexander Zverev to win the match, priced at -500 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.

Alexander Zverev vs Alejandro Tabilo: Alexander Zverev to win the match (-500)

Odds available at pinnacle at time of publishing

Alexander Zverev faces Alejandro Tabilo at US Open on Sunday 6 September 2026. They are playing on a hard court. This is a match winner bet, so it lands if Alexander Zverev wins the match. It was priced at -500 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $12 if it lands. Our model likes this one a lot. Alexander Zverev is a solid pick at odds of 1.2 against Alejandro Tabilo, leveraging superior serve performance and recent form. Zverev boasts a first-serve percentage of 62.95% and wins 81.17% of first-serve points, both of which are critical on hard courts. His overall serve points won rate stands at 71.96%, indicating consistency under pressure. In contrast, Tabilo's recent performances reveal weaknesses, notably his second-serve points won rate at just 47.41%, which is ripe for exploitation. Zverev's average break point save percentage of 50% reflects his ability to withstand pressure, while Tabilo's struggles with a 100% BP save rate against him signal vulnerability.

Jakub Mensik vs Learner Tien: Learner Tien to win the match (-123)

Odds available at pinnacle at time of publishing

Jakub Mensik faces Learner Tien at US Open on Sunday 6 September 2026. They are playing on a hard court. This is a match winner bet, so it lands if Learner Tien wins the match. It was priced at -123 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $18.10 if it lands. Our model likes this one a lot. Tien has a solid 60% win rate over his last five matches, while Mensik struggles with a significantly lower performance on hard courts, particularly evident in his opponent's first-serve win rate of 67.3% compared to Tien's 71.1%. Tien's average first-serve percentage (59.5%) and points won on first serves (71.1%) indicate effective serving, while Mensik's lower second-serve win percentage (49.6%) suggests vulnerability under pressure. Tien's ability to save break points (20%) is crucial, especially against Mensik’s aggressive play. Additionally, Tien's ace rate (6.5%) further amplifies his service strength, contrasting sharply with Mensik’s minimal ace effectiveness. Collectively, these metrics position Learner Tien as the more reliable choice for a moneyline pick.

That is the model's read on today's Tennis card. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.

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