Zay Flowers (BAL) Yes Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+210)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

Looking at Zay Flowers' recent performance and trends, the statistics do not seem to be in favor of betting on him for a 'player_anytime_td'. Over his last 10 games, Flowers hasn't scored a touchdown at all. His overall touchdown hit rate is low, standing at only 8/47. Specifically, against the Pittsburgh Steelers, Flowers has scored only once in three games. His recent performance at home is also not encouraging, with a hit rate of 0/10. Moreover, there's currently no hit streak for Flowers, either at home or against the Steelers. His performance at home against the Steelers is also unimpressive with a hit rate of 0/1. Despite the model showing a slight edge, the statistics and performance trends of Flowers do not substantiate a strong rationale for betting on him to score a touchdown in the upcoming game.

Mark Andrews (BAL) Yes Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+175)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

Based on the provided statistics, betting on Mark Andrews to score a touchdown at any time during the Ravens vs. Steelers game could be a risky proposition. His overall hit rate is 18 out of 58, which indicates a less than one-third chance of scoring a touchdown. More concerning is his recent performance, with no touchdowns scored in his last 5 overall and home games and only one touchdown scored in his last 5 games against the Steelers. His hit rate at home is 8 out of 30, which also suggests a less than one-third probability. While he has a 50% hit rate when playing at home against the Steelers, this is based on a small sample size of just 2 games. Therefore, although there is a model edge of 0.1387, the recent and overall performance data point towards a low probability of success for this bet.

Baltimore Ravens vs Pittsburgh Steelers : Under 43.5 Total Points (-112)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

The bet on Under 43.5 in the 'totals' market of the game seems to be a data-driven decision. The home team's overall last 5 games' (L5) average scores for and against are 23 and 16.6 respectively, and the away team's L5 scores for and against are 21.2 and 22.8 respectively. This suggests both teams have low scoring games on average. The home team's L5 Expected Points Added (EPA) for is -1.99 and against is -8.88, showing they are not adding much to the score and preventing the opposition from doing so. The away team's L5 EPA for is -4.63 and against is -2.6, further confirming the low scoring trend. Furthermore, the explosive rate for both teams is under 25% indicating few big plays. The turnover difference for both teams is also not significant enough to alter the scoring pattern. Hence, it's statistically

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