On Saturday 5 September 2026, Morgan Charrière takes on Felipe Lima in the UFC. Our model likes 2 bets here. The one it likes most is Felipe Lima -3.5 on the Line, priced at +110 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.

Felipe Lima -3.5 on the Line (+110)

Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing

For Felipe Lima to cover the spread of -3.5 against Morgan Charriere, he needs to win by at least four points. Lima has a slight reach advantage, which could help him keep his distance and control the fight. The fight is expected to be very close, so there's a real chance it could go either way. Charriere is no slouch, and if he can close the distance, he might surprise Lima. Still, Lima's overall experience might be enough to secure the win and cover the spread. It was priced at +110 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $21 if it lands. The number next to the team is the handicap, and that team's score is adjusted by it before the bet is settled. This one is priced as an outside chance. Our model has this as a long shot, so keep the stake small. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Morgan Charriere to Win (+170)

Odds available at Betanysports at time of publishing

Morgan Charriere is known for his striking skills, which could give him the upper hand against Felipe Lima. Both fighters are quite evenly matched, making this a tough call, but Charriere has that knockout power that can turn the fight around quickly. The biggest risk is that Lima is also a solid fighter who can make things challenging for Charriere. Still, with the added value at those odds, it's worth taking a shot on Charriere to win the fight. It was priced at +170 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $27 if it lands. This one is priced as an outside chance. Our model leans this way without loving it. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

The tale of the tape:

  • Felipe Lima: last five L-W-W, dropped the last 1, 0% of career wins came by knockout, 432 days since the last fight
  • Morgan Charrière: last five L-W-L-W-L, dropped the last 1, 9% of career wins came by knockout, 263 days since the last fight

That is how our model reads Morgan Charrière v Felipe Lima. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.

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