On Sunday 20 September 2026, Alonzo Menifield takes on Iwo Baraniewski in the UFC. Our model likes 2 bets here. The one it likes most is Alonzo Menifield +7.5 on the Line, priced at +150 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.

Alonzo Menifield +7.5 on the Line (+150)

Odds available at Bovada at time of publishing

Alonzo Menifield is a tough fighter who brings a lot of power and experience into the octagon. He's up against Iwo Baraniewski, who is known for his striking skills but may struggle to handle Menifield's strength. With our numbers showing this matchup is nearly even, taking Menifield with a point spread of +7.5 feels like a solid choice. The fight could go either way, but Menifield's durability gives him an advantage in lasting through the rounds. However, Baraniewski's striking can be dangerous, which means this fight might be closer than expected. Don't forget, it's always possible for the fight to end in a way that surprises us. It was priced at +150 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $25 if it lands. The number next to the team is the handicap, and that team's score is adjusted by it before the bet is settled. This one is priced as an outside chance. Our model has this as a long shot, so keep the stake small. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Alonzo Menifield to Win (+215)

Odds available at Betfair at time of publishing

Alonzo Menifield has been looking strong lately, showing off his powerful striking in recent fights. He's up against Iwo Baraniewski, who is a tough opponent but might struggle to keep up with Menifield's style. Menifield's age gives him some extra experience, and that can make a big difference in the octagon. Betting on Menifield to win the fight at these odds feels promising as he's got a real chance to pull off an upset. The biggest risk here is that Baraniewski could take the fight to the ground, where Menifield might not be as comfortable. However, if Menifield can keep it standing, he has the skills to secure a victory. It was priced at +215 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $31.50 if it lands. This is a long shot at the price, so keep the stake small. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

The tale of the tape:

  • Alonzo Menifield: last five W-L-W-W-L, won the last fight, 24% of career wins came by knockout, 113 days since the last fight
  • Iwo Baraniewski: last five W-W-W-W, on a 4-fight win streak, 44% of career wins came by knockout, 106 days since the last fight

That is how our model reads Alonzo Menifield v Iwo Baraniewski. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.

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