Grant Dawson vs Nurullo Aliev Prediction & Picks

Grant Dawson is known for his strong wrestling skills, which gives him a solid chance against Nurullo Aliev, who is more of a striker. With their styles in mind, Dawson needs to take control on the ground to limit Aliev's striking chances. The risk here is that Aliev has shown good durability, so he might withstand Dawson's takedown attempts better than expected. However, Dawson's wrestling could help him win by a margin of about 3.5 points. Betting on Grant Dawson to cover that spread at +145 is worth a look. Just remember, there are no guarantees in fighting. It was priced at +150 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $25 if it lands. The number next to the team is the handicap, and that team's score is adjusted by it before the bet is settled. This one is priced as an outside chance. Our model has this as a long shot, so keep the stake small. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Under 2.5 Total Rounds (+205)

The odds for under 2.5 rounds in the fight between Grant Dawson and Nurullo Aliev are looking pretty tempting at +201. Our numbers suggest this matchup is likely to end quickly, with a combined total expected to be around 1.2 rounds. That shows both fighters could go for a fast finish, which often happens when you have two aggressive styles in the Octagon. Dawson is known for his grappling game, while Aliev can strike hard. This means both might try to end the fight before it goes the distance. The biggest risk here is that both fighters are closely matched, so it could turn into a longer battle. But with their styles, we think there's a strong chance it will be a quick one. It was priced at +205 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $30.50 if it lands. This is a long shot at the price, so keep the stake small. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

The tale of the tape:

• Grant Dawson: last five W-L-W-W-W, won the last fight, 7% of career wins came by knockout, 168 days since the last fight
• Nurullo Aliev: last five W-W-W-W-W, on a 5-fight win streak, 9% of career wins came by knockout, 91 days since the last fight

That is how our model reads Grant Dawson v Nurullo Aliev. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.