On Tuesday 13 October 2026, Valencia play Athletic Bilbao in La Liga. Our model likes 2 bets here. The one it likes most is Valencia +0.75 Goal Handicap, priced at -200 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.
Odds correct at time of publishing
As Valencia prepares to host Athletic Bilbao, recent form and head-to-head history paint a promising picture for the home side. Despite a challenging stretch, Valencia has historically had the upper hand against Bilbao, boasting an impressive 3-0-2 record in their last five encounters. While recent home performances have been lackluster, averaging just one goal per game, their ability to create chances is evident; they've averaged nearly 15 shots per match. Conversely, Bilbao's away form has shown inconsistency, with defensive lapses leading to an average of two goals conceded in their last matches. With Valencia's attacking prowess and a chance to break their recent slump, a handicap of 0.75 feels like a savvy play. Expect Valencia to capitalize on their home advantage and turn the tide in this matchup, making them a solid bet to cover the line.
Valencia vs Athletic Bilbao: Valencia Moneyline (+250)
Odds correct at time of publishing
When Valencia hosts Athletic Bilbao, they’ll be looking to leverage their historical edge, having won three of their last five encounters. Despite a rocky home form recently, the numbers still hint at potential. Valencia's xG stats suggest they can create chances, averaging nearly 12 shots per game, though they’ve struggled to convert, netting just one goal at home on average. Athletic Bilbao, while slightly better in terms of recent overall performance, has conceded 2 goals away on average, which opens the door for Valencia. Their ability to pressure the opposition translates into more opportunities, and with the stakes high, they’ll be itching to turn that energy into points. Given the odds, the value lies with the home side to finally capitalize on their chances against a Bilbao side that has shown vulnerability on the road.
That is how our model reads Valencia v Athletic Bilbao. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.
Unlock the rest of this one
You're reading the free preview. One plan unlocks the full article and every pick we back — every league, every day.
Unlock the full article