Here are our NFL picks for Monday 31 August 2026. Our model likes 6 bets here. The one it likes most is Woody Marks (HOU) Over 19.5 Player rush yds alternate, priced at -312 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.

Woody Marks (HOU) Over 19.5 Player rush yds alternate (-312)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

Houston Texans play Buffalo Bills in the NFL on Sunday 13 September 2026. The bet we are looking at is Woody Marks (HOU) Over 19.5 Player rush yds alternate. It was priced at -312 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $13.20 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Matthew Stafford (LA) Under 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (+125)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

Los Angeles Rams play San Francisco 49ers in the NFL on Friday 11 September 2026. The bet we are looking at is Matthew Stafford (LA) Under 1.5 Passing Touchdowns. It was priced at +125 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $22.50 if it lands. Our model rates this one a lean pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Blake Corum (LA) Under 36.5 Rushing Yards (-108)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

Los Angeles Rams play San Francisco 49ers in the NFL on Friday 11 September 2026. The bet we are looking at is Blake Corum (LA) Under 36.5 Rushing Yards. It was priced at -108 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $19.30 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Woody Marks (HOU) Over 19.5 Player rush yds alternate (-333)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

Houston Texans play Buffalo Bills in the NFL on Sunday 13 September 2026. The bet we are looking at is Woody Marks (HOU) Over 19.5 Player rush yds alternate. It was priced at -333 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $13.00 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Ladd McConkey (LAC) Over 55.5 Player reception yds alternate (-112)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

Los Angeles Chargers play Arizona Cardinals in the NFL on Sunday 13 September 2026. The bet we are looking at is Ladd McConkey (LAC) Over 55.5 Player reception yds alternate. It was priced at -112 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $18.90 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Tetairoa McMillan (CAR) Over 5.5 Player receptions alternate (+150)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

Carolina Panthers play Chicago Bears in the NFL on Sunday 13 September 2026. The bet we are looking at is Tetairoa McMillan (CAR) Over 5.5 Player receptions alternate. It was priced at +150 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $25 if it lands. Our model rates this one a lean pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

That is the model's read on today's NFL card. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.

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