Here are our NFL picks for Friday 4 September 2026. Our model likes 6 bets here. The one it likes most is Sam Darnold (SEA) Under 5.5 Rushing Yards, priced at -108 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.
Sam Darnold (SEA) Under 5.5 Rushing Yards (-108)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
Seattle Seahawks play New England Patriots in the NFL on Thursday 10 September 2026. The bet we are looking at is Sam Darnold (SEA) Under 5.5 Rushing Yards. It was priced at -108 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $19.30 if it lands. Our model rates this one a lean pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
Sam Darnold (SEA) Under 5.5 Rushing Yards (-114)
Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing
Seattle Seahawks play New England Patriots in the NFL on Thursday 10 September 2026. The bet we are looking at is Sam Darnold (SEA) Under 5.5 Rushing Yards. It was priced at -114 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $18.80 if it lands. Our model rates this one a lean pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
Sam Darnold (SEA) Under 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-133)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
Seattle Seahawks play New England Patriots in the NFL on Thursday 10 September 2026. The bet we are looking at is Sam Darnold (SEA) Under 1.5 Passing Touchdowns. It was priced at -133 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $17.50 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
Sam Darnold (SEA) Under 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-135)
Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing
Seattle Seahawks play New England Patriots in the NFL on Thursday 10 September 2026. The bet we are looking at is Sam Darnold (SEA) Under 1.5 Passing Touchdowns. It was priced at -135 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $17.40 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
AJ Barner (SEA) Over 24.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing
Seattle Seahawks play New England Patriots in the NFL on Thursday 10 September 2026. The bet we are looking at is AJ Barner (SEA) Over 24.5 Receiving Yards. It was priced at -114 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $18.80 if it lands. Our model rates this one a lean pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
AJ Barner (SEA) Over 2.5 Receptions (-147)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
Seattle Seahawks play New England Patriots in the NFL on Thursday 10 September 2026. The bet we are looking at is AJ Barner (SEA) Over 2.5 Receptions. It was priced at -147 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $16.80 if it lands. Our model rates this one a lean pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
That is the model's read on today's NFL card. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.
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