Today's Top MLB Prop Bet Picks & Predictions, Monday 07/21 (Tyler Anderson Highlights): Finding the Edge

The bet on Tyler Anderson for Over 2.5 in the Pitcher Strikeouts (Alternate) market is a good choice due to his consistent performance, particularly in strikeouts. His last five games show an average of 4.6 strikeouts overall and 4.6 when playing away. This is significantly higher than the line of 2.5 set for this bet. Additionally, his innings pitched (IP) averages are robust, with 5.1 IP overall and 4.3 IP away, indicating he stays on the mound long enough to achieve the required strikeouts. His current hit streaks, both overall and away, also support the bet, demonstrating his ability to consistently perform. Furthermore, his performance against the Mets has also been strong, with an average of 3.7 strikeouts in the last five games. Therefore, based on Anderson's past performance, he is likely to exceed the 2.5 strikeouts line.

Carlos Rodon (NYY) Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-147)

Carlos Rodon's performance data suggests he is a strong choice for an Over 4.5 bet in the Pitcher Strikeouts market. His last five games show an average of 7.4 strikeouts overall and 8 when playing away. This indicates a consistent trend of achieving more than the 4.5 line set for this bet. His innings pitched (IP) averages also support this, with 5.7 IP overall and 5.8 IP when away, which provides ample opportunity for strikeouts. Furthermore, Rodon's current hit streak is impressive, with 6 overall and 2 away, demonstrating his current form and momentum. While his averages against the Blue Jays are slightly lower, they still surpass the line with 7 strikeouts and 4.7 IP. All these factors combined provide a compelling rationale for betting Over 4.5 on Rodon's strikeouts.

Fernando Tatis Jr. (SDP) Under 0.5 Stolen Bases (-312)

Fernando Tatis Jr.'s recent performance data supports the under 0.5 stolen bases bet. His last five games overall and away show an average of only 0.2 stolen bases. Even more compelling, when facing the Miami Marlins, his stolen bases average drops to zero. This suggests that Tatis Jr. struggles to steal bases against this particular team. His current hit streak, both overall and away, sits at 3, indicating consistency at the plate but not necessarily translating into stolen bases. Additionally, the Marlins have an average of 0.2 caught stealing per game over the last five games, suggesting they are effective at preventing stolen bases. These factors combined give a strong indication that Tatis Jr. is unlikely to steal more than 0.5 bases in this game.

Bryce Elder (ATL) Over 3.5 Strikeouts (-208)

Bryce Elder's recent performance data supports the bet for over 3.5 strikeouts. In the last five games, Elder's average strikeouts, both overall and at home, are 4.6, which is above the line. Although his innings pitched are slightly lower at home (4.3 vs 4.9 overall), his strikeout rate remains consistent. This indicates that Elder maintains his efficiency even when pitching fewer innings. Moreover, his average outs pitched at home is 13.2, which provides him ample opportunity to achieve over 3.5 strikeouts. While his current hit streak isn't impressive, it doesn't significantly impact his strikeout potential. Therefore, based on Elder's consistent strikeout rate and sufficient outs pitched, the bet for over 3.5 strikeouts is a statistically sound choice.

Carlos Rodon (NYY) Over 3.5 Strikeouts (-345)

Carlos Rodon's recent performance suggests a high probability of achieving over 3.5 strikeouts in the upcoming game. His overall strikeout average in the last five games is 7.4, more than double the line set for this bet. Moreover, his strikeout average when playing away is even higher at 8. This indicates that Rodon is not negatively affected by playing in an unfamiliar environment. His current hit streaks, both overall and away, further demonstrate his consistent performance. Although his averages against the opponent and when playing away are slightly lower, they are still above the line. Therefore, based on Rodon's past performance and current form, it is statistically likely that he will achieve over 3.5 strikeouts in the upcoming game.