Today's Tennis Best Bets - Smart Betting Angles

Here are our Tennis picks for Wednesday 23 September 2026. Our model likes 6 bets here. The one it likes most is Elise Mertens to win the match, priced at -125 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.

Elise Mertens vs Maja Chwalinska: Elise Mertens to win the match (-125)

Elise Mertens faces Maja Chwalinska at Singapore Open on Friday 25 September 2026. This is a match winner bet, so it lands if Elise Mertens wins the match. It was priced at -125 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $18 if it lands. Our model likes this one a lot. Mertens' recent form is impressive, with an 80% win rate over her last five matches, indicating strong competitive momentum. In contrast, Chwalinska's last five matches show significant vulnerabilities, particularly in serve performance where her opponent's first-serve percentage reached 71.4%, with 53.3% of points won on first serves and only 22.2% on second serves, reflecting pressure point weaknesses. Mertens has consistently capitalized on opponents' serve faults, as evidenced by her high break point save percentage of 50%. Given her superior recent form and the statistical advantages in serve and pressure situations, Mertens presents a compelling case as the more reliable player in this matchup.

Mirra Andreeva vs Aliaksandra Sasnovich: Aliaksandra Sasnovich to win the match (+6600)

Mirra Andreeva faces Aliaksandra Sasnovich at Singapore Open on Wednesday 23 September 2026. This is a match winner bet, so it lands if Aliaksandra Sasnovich wins the match. It was priced at +6600 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $670 if it lands. Our model has this one as a long shot, so treat it as a small punt. In the upcoming match, Aliaksandra Sasnovich presents value at odds of 67 against Mirra Andreeva. Analyzing recent form, Sasnovich has a 40% win rate over her last 10 matches, indicating improved performance compared to Andreeva's 20% win rate. Key serve metrics favor Sasnovich, particularly in the context of her opponent's struggles. Andreeva's opponents have averaged a 60% first serve percentage and 54.5% first points won, suggesting she may face significant pressure on her serve. Sasnovich's ability to capitalize on break points (50% BP save rate from opponents) could prove crucial against Andreeva's vulnerable serve.

Tatiana Prozorova vs Alexandra Eala: Alexandra Eala to win the match (-357)

Tatiana Prozorova faces Alexandra Eala at Singapore Open on Thursday 24 September 2026. This is a match winner bet, so it lands if Alexandra Eala wins the match. It was priced at -357 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $12.80 if it lands. Our model likes this one a lot. Eala boasts a recent win rate of 60% over her last five matches and 80% over the last ten, indicating strong current form. Despite the absence of detailed serve stats, Eala's overall performance suggests she can convert pressure points effectively, especially given Prozorova's lack of recent competitive data.

Maria Sakkari vs Nao Hibino: Maria Sakkari to win the match (-435)

Maria Sakkari faces Nao Hibino at Singapore Open on Thursday 24 September 2026. This is a match winner bet, so it lands if Maria Sakkari wins the match. It was priced at -435 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $12.30 if it lands. Our model likes this one a lot. Sakkari's recent form reflects a 40% win rate over her last five matches, significantly better than Hibino's. In terms of serve performance, Hibino has been under pressure, with her opponents winning 66.7% of their serve points and saving only 66.7% of break points. Sakkari's strong serve can exploit this, especially given Hibino's higher double fault rate (5.6%) compared to Sakkari's potential to maintain strong serving metrics. Hibino's inability to win first and second serve points against her last five opponents further supports the case for Sakkari, who is expected to dominate the baseline exchanges and capitalize on break point opportunities. Overall, Sakkari’s superior recent form and serve performance make her the value side in this matchup.

Alycia Parks vs Leylah Fernandez: Alycia Parks to win the match (+265)

Alycia Parks faces Leylah Fernandez at Singapore Open on Wednesday 23 September 2026. This is a match winner bet, so it lands if Alycia Parks wins the match. It was priced at +265 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $36.50 if it lands. Our model has this one as a long shot, so treat it as a small punt. Recent stats indicate that Parks' opponent, Fernandez, struggles on serve with a first serve win rate of 56.4% and a break point save percentage of 67.8%. In contrast, Parks has been competitive enough to capitalize on such weaknesses, particularly given her need to improve her own serve stats. Considering Parks' recent form win rate of 40% and the possibility of capitalizing on Fernandez's pressure points, she represents a value pick in this context, especially at the given odds.

Talia Gibson vs Viktória Morvayová: Viktória Morvayová to win the match (+720)

Talia Gibson faces Viktória Morvayová at Singapore Open on Thursday 24 September 2026. This is a match winner bet, so it lands if Viktória Morvayová wins the match. It was priced at +720 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $82 if it lands. Our model has this one as a long shot, so treat it as a small punt. Both players are entering this match without recent competitive form, as indicated by their lack of wins in the last five matches. While specific serve stats aren't available, Morvayová has historically shown resilience under pressure, which could be pivotal given both players' recent struggles. In this matchup context, if Morvayová can find her serve and capitalize on any break points, she has the potential to outperform expectations. Additionally, considering the lack of recent wins for both, the odds provide a compelling risk-reward scenario, making her a valuable pick.

That is the model's read on today's Tennis card. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.