Chicago Bears vs Pittsburgh Steelers : NA Moneyline (+130)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
The bet on the Pittsburgh Steelers in the head-to-head market is supported by several key statistical trends. The Steelers have a strong recent home record, with 4 wins in their last 5 games, compared to the away team's 2-3 record in their last 5 games. Additionally, the Steelers have a positive point differential in their last 5 home games, scoring on average 5.4 more points per game than they conceded. The Steelers also have an edge in terms of Expected Points Added (EPA), a measure of the contribution of each play to the team's scoring margin. They have an overall EPA difference of 3.53 in their last 5 games, indicating they are more effective in both offensive and defensive plays than the away team, who has a mere 0.16 EPA difference. Lastly, the Steelers have a positive turnover differential, averaging 1.6 more turnovers won than lost in their last 5 home games, suggesting they are better than
Chicago Bears vs Pittsburgh Steelers : NA Moneyline (+122)
Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing
The bet on Pittsburgh Steelers in the 'h2h' market seems reasonable when analyzing recent performance data. The Steelers have a positive record for the last five games, going 4-1 overall and 3-2 at home. They have outperformed the away team in terms of scoring, with a home scoring average of 26.4 points against the away team's 25.4. Their defensive play is also superior, with fewer points scored against them on average. The Steelers also have an edge in terms of EPA (Expected Points Added), especially in rushing, where they have a clear advantage over the away team. Furthermore, they have posted better numbers in turnover difference, both overall and at home, suggesting they are more careful with the ball and can capitalize on opponents' mistakes more effectively. The model edge, which quantifies the difference between the model's implied odds and the bookmaker's odds, is 0.10154954954955, indicating the model predicts
Chicago Bears vs Pittsburgh Steelers : Under 44.5 Total Points (-102)
Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing
The bet on Under 44.5 in the 'totals' market for this game is supported by both teams' recent scoring trends. The home team has averaged 26.4 points in their last 5 games, while the away team has scored an average of 25.4 points. This combined score of 51.8 is well above the target of 44.5. However, when looking at the home team's last 5 home games, they've only scored an average of 21.6 points, and the away team has scored an average of 22 points in their last 5 away games, totaling 43.6 points, which is under the target. Moreover, the away team's effective play averages (EPA) for both passing and rushing have been negative in their last 5 overall and away games. This suggests that their offensive efficiency has been less than optimal, which could result in lower scoring. The home team also has a strong defensive record,
Chicago Bears vs Pittsburgh Steelers : Under 44.5 Total Points (-105)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
The bet on Under 44.5 in the 'totals' market for this game is supported by key metrics from recent performances of both teams. The home team's last five games have seen an average of 26.4 points scored for and 24.6 against, which totals 51, however, in their home games, they scored less (21.6) and conceded less (16.2), which totals 37.8 - well under the 44.5 line. The away team's last five games have seen an average of 25.4 points for and 25 against, which totals 50.4, but their away games have seen them score 22 and concede 26.4, totaling 48.4 - closer to the line, but still under. The home team's strong last five overall record (4-1), compared to the away team's weaker record (2-3), suggests the home team's lower-scoring trend may continue.
Baltimore Ravens vs New York Jets : Over 44.5 Total Points (-108)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
The 'Over 44.5' bet is supported by combining the average scores for both teams in their last five games. The home team has scored an average of 22.2 points while the away team has averaged 19.4 points, totaling 41.6 points. This is slightly below the 44.5 outcome point. However, the home team has also conceded an average of 14.8 points and the away team 22.2, which total 37 - a higher average total points. The home team's overall performance in their last five games is also better (4-1) compared to the away team's (2-3). However, when looking at home versus away performance, the home team has a record of 2-3 and the away team 1-4. The model edge of 0.0299 suggests a slight statistical advantage towards the 'over' outcome. Both teams' last five games' explosive rate (ability to
Baltimore Ravens vs New York Jets : Over 44.5 Total Points (-110)
Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing
The bet on Over 44.5 in the 'totals' market for the game is primarily supported by scoring data. The home team has averaged 22.2 points in their last 5 games overall and 22.8 points in their last 5 home games. On the other side, the away team has put up an average of 19.4 points in their last 5 games overall, and 23 points in their last 5 away games. Adding these averages, we get an expected total score of 44.6 for the home team's home games and 45.2 for the away team's away games, both of which are slightly over the set total of 44.5. However, it's worth noting that the away team has a poor record in their last 5 games, winning only 1. This could suggest a weaker performance, potentially lowering the overall score. Nonetheless, the average scores still imply a reasonable probability of the total going over
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