Today's La Liga Best Bets: Picks, Predictions and Odds for ALL Games on Thursday 09/17

When AC Milan hosts Lecce, recent form suggests a potential upset. While Milan boasts a strong historical record against Lecce at 5-0-0, their last five home matches tell a different tale; they’ve only managed two wins in their last five overall, with a dismal home scoring average of just 1 goal. Lecce, on the other hand, is riding a wave of confidence, going unbeaten in their last five away matches and averaging a solid 1.4 goals per game. Their defensive stats are also noteworthy, allowing just 0.8 goals on the road, which could frustrate a Milan side that’s struggling to convert chances lately. With these dynamics in play, taking Lecce on a +2 handicap feels like a savvy move. They have the momentum to at least keep it competitive, making this bet an intriguing proposition for bettors looking for value.

Sevilla vs Barcelona: Sevilla +2.25 Goal Handicap (-125)

As Sevilla prepares to take on Barcelona, the stakes couldn’t be higher. While Barcelona boasts an impressive away record, Sevilla has been no slouch at home, winning three of their last five outings. They’ve managed to keep things tight defensively, conceding just 1.2 goals on average in their last five home matches. What’s intriguing is Sevilla's ability to create chances; they average 16.2 shots at home, suggesting they can trouble Barcelona’s defense. Although they’ve struggled against Barcelona in recent clashes, home advantage and their recent form can't be ignored. With the handicap set at 2.25, backing Sevilla not only offers a cushion but taps into their potential to frustrate a Barcelona side that may underestimate them. It’s a calculated gamble that leverages Sevilla's home resilience against a visiting Barcelona team still finding its rhythm.

AC Milan vs Lecce: Lecce +1.75 Goal Handicap (-125)

As AC Milan hosts Lecce, it’s hard to overlook the recent form of both sides. Milan has struggled at home, going 1-1-3 in their last five at San Siro, averaging just 1 goal while conceding 1.6. Their expected goals (xG) stats paint a picture of an attack that’s faltering, with a lack of creativity evident from their meager assist totals. Conversely, Lecce arrives on the back of a solid away performance, boasting a 3-1-1 run and averaging 1.4 goals, while conceding a mere 0.8. The recent history favors Milan, but Lecce's upward trend and Milan's home struggles suggest a closer match than anticipated. Betting on Lecce +1.75 offers a cushion that reflects both teams' current forms, making this an enticing opportunity for bettors looking to capitalize on the dynamics at play.

Sevilla vs Barcelona: Sevilla +2.5 Goal Handicap (-154)

As Sevilla prepares to host Barcelona, there's a compelling narrative emerging around their recent home form. With a solid 3-1-1 record in their last five matches at the Ramón Sánchez-Pizjuán, Sevilla's defensive solidity has been impressive, conceding just 1.2 goals per game at home. While Barcelona is on a five-match winning streak, they've faced teams that haven’t put up much of a fight recently. Sevilla, with an average of 1.6 goals scored over the same period, shows they can find the net, especially against a Barcelona side that might underestimate them. The historical edge also plays a role, with Sevilla managing a surprising win over Barcelona not long ago. Given Sevilla's ability to perform under pressure and their home advantage, taking them on the alternate handicap of 2.5 looks promising. Expect a competitive battle, where Sevilla could very well surprise the Catalans once more.

AC Milan vs Lecce: Lecce +1.25 Goal Handicap (+135)

As AC Milan welcomes Lecce, the balance of power seems to be shifting. Milan’s recent home form has been shaky, notching just two wins in their last five, with a worrying trend of conceding an average of 1.6 goals at home. Meanwhile, Lecce is riding a wave of confidence, boasting a solid away record that includes three wins in their last five fixtures. With Milan's struggles to score consistently—averaging just 1 goal per game at home—they could struggle against Lecce’s tenacious defense. Not to mention, Lecce has historically been a thorn in Milan’s side, going winless in their last five encounters. The odds are favoring Lecce to at least hold their ground, making the +1.25 handicap a tantalizing option to explore. Expect Lecce to put up a fight and potentially surprise the Rossoneri on their own turf!

That is the model's read on today's La Liga card. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.