Phoenix Mercury vs Dallas Wings Prediction & Picks (Arike Ogunbowale Key Factor): Analytics Breakdown

The Phoenix Mercury have struggled lately, winning only 3 of their last 10 games and losing by an average of nearly 5 points. However, they're facing the Dallas Wings, who are doing well with 5 wins in their last 10 and scoring a solid 89 points a game. With the Mercury getting 6 points, it seems like a decent chance for them to keep it close, especially since Dallas can let opponents score from long range. The risk is that the Wings have a strong recent record, making this matchup pretty tight. It was priced at -115 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $18.70 if it lands. The number next to the team is the handicap, and that team's score is adjusted by it before the bet is settled. This is an alternate line, so it is not the main number on the board and the price moves with it. The bookmakers have this as a slight favourite. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Arike Ogunbowale Over 18.5 Points and Rebounds (-110)

Arike Ogunbowale has been on fire lately, helping the Dallas Wings win their last six games. She's scoring a lot and her team is averaging nearly 90 points per game, which should give her plenty of chances to rack up points and rebounds. The Wings have a strong offense, so Arike is likely to get involved in the action. On the other hand, the Phoenix Mercury have struggled, winning only three of their last ten games. While they've faced tough teams, their recent form may work against them. The bet on Arike Ogunbowale to get over 18.5 points and rebounds is a good choice, but the risk is that the Mercury could surprise everyone with a solid defensive effort. It was priced at -110 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $19.10 if it lands. The bookmakers have this as a slight favourite. Our model leans this way without loving it. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Paige Bueckers Over 5.5 Assists (+112)

Paige Bueckers has been on fire lately, helping her team score big. The Dallas Wings are winning a lot, and they score almost 90 points per game. That means there are plenty of chances for Paige to dish out assists. She's been really involved in the game, and with Dallas pushing the pace, she should get more opportunities to set up her teammates. The Phoenix Mercury have faced tough opponents lately, and that could affect how they play. The risk is that if the game turns into a blowout, Paige might not play as many minutes. Still, with the way both teams are playing, I think she can get over 5.5 assists. It's a close call, but the chances are looking good. It was priced at +112 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $21.20 if it lands. This one is priced as an outside chance. Our model has this as a long shot, so keep the stake small. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Alyssa Thomas Under 22.5 Points and Assists (-112)

Alyssa Thomas needs to score fewer than 22.5 points and assists tonight for this bet to hit. The Phoenix Mercury have struggled lately, winning only 2 of their last 6 games. Meanwhile, the Dallas Wings are on a roll, winning all of their last 6 games and scoring a solid 89.1 points each game. With the Wings playing strong defense and Thomas facing a tough matchup, it feels like a good chance that she won't reach that number. One risk is that both teams are playing at a fast pace, which could lead to more scoring opportunities. However, given the trends, it seems more likely that Thomas will stay under that total tonight. It was priced at -112 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $18.90 if it lands. The bookmakers have this as a slight favourite. Our model leans this way without loving it. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

That is how our model reads Phoenix Mercury v Dallas Wings. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.