Oklahoma City Thunder vs Denver Nuggets Prediction & Picks, October 22, 2026

Jalen Williams needs to score and assist less than 22.5 points combined tonight for this bet to win. With how the Thunder play, they let opponents shoot a lot of threes and grab plenty of rebounds, which could limit his chances to rack up points and assists. He averages 4.5 assists at home and is facing a solid Denver defense that forces fewer turnovers than league average. Plus, the Nuggets are known for keeping games close, which might mean fewer scoring opportunities for him. The biggest risk is that he could take advantage of the Thunder's poor defense and surprise us with a big game, but the numbers are leaning towards the under.

Oklahoma City Thunder vs Denver Nuggets: Nikola Jokic Under 34.5 Pts + Asts (+115)

Nikola Jokic has been a star, but he faces a tough matchup against the Oklahoma City Thunder, who are known for forcing turnovers more than most teams. The Thunder have been pretty solid at controlling the game, allowing fewer easy baskets and making it hard for players to rack up points and assists. Plus, the Thunder give up a lot of rebounds, which might limit Jokic's chances to create second-chance points. The bet here is for Jokic to score under 34.5 points and assists. While he usually brings his A-game, this matchup could make it tricky for him to hit that mark. The real risk is that the Thunder have a strong ability to disrupt the flow of the game, which could keep Jokic from getting into a rhythm.

Oklahoma City Thunder vs Denver Nuggets: Jamal Murray Under 2.5 3-Pointers (+120)

Jamal Murray has been a bit quiet with his three-point shooting lately, and with the Thunder's defense, this could be a good bet. Oklahoma City allows a lot of three-point attempts but has been tougher on shooters like Murray, who may struggle to find his rhythm tonight. The Thunder also force turnovers more often than the Nuggets, which can disrupt Denver's flow. Plus, Murray has not been hitting his mark consistently, making it likely he stays under 2.5 three-pointers in this matchup. Just remember, the Nuggets can always surprise, and if Murray heats up, he could make this bet tougher.

That is our read — no bet on this board is a sure thing. Prices can move before you get on, so check the board at your bookmaker. Bet what you can afford to lose. If betting stops being fun, take a break.