Oklahoma City Thunder vs Denver Nuggets Prediction & Picks, October 22, 2026

Nikola Jokic has been a key player for the Denver Nuggets, but he could struggle against the Oklahoma City Thunder. The Thunder allow a lot of three-point attempts, which might pull Jokic away from his usual scoring spots. Plus, they also give up quite a few rebounds, but Jokic is up against a team that forces turnovers better than average, which could limit his chances to rack up points and assists. While Jokic is a fantastic player, the matchup suggests that he may not hit the 37.5 mark for points and assists. The Thunder's defensive style can make it hard for him to find his rhythm. Since the two teams are closely matched, it's possible that this bet could go either way, but we think the under makes sense here.

Oklahoma City Thunder vs Denver Nuggets: Nikola Jokic Under 9.5 Assists (+105)

Nikola Jokic has been a key player for the Denver Nuggets, but he might struggle to hit more than 9 assists against the Oklahoma City Thunder. The Thunder have a way of forcing turnovers at a higher rate compared to most teams, which could disrupt Jokic's passing opportunities. Plus, they allow a lot of three-point attempts, meaning Jokic might have to focus more on scoring rather than setting up teammates. The Nuggets also don't force turnovers as effectively, which means Jokic could find himself with fewer chances to assist. With the Thunder's ability to grab rebounds, they may limit second-chance opportunities for Denver, too. While Jokic is a fantastic player, the matchup suggests he might not reach 10 assists this game.

Oklahoma City Thunder vs Denver Nuggets: Jalen Williams Under 23.5 Pts + Asts (-104)

For Jalen Williams to hit under 23.5 points and assists tonight, he needs to face a tough defense from the Denver Nuggets. The Nuggets are pretty solid at limiting scoring chances, allowing fewer rebounds than the Thunder. This means fewer opportunities for Williams to rack up points and assists. Plus, the Thunder have been known to give up a lot of three-point attempts, but the Nuggets don't usually take a ton of threes, which might limit the chances for assists. The risk here is how close the two teams are in overall play, but our numbers suggest Williams is a strong pick to stay under that total.

That is our read — no bet on this board is a sure thing. Prices can move before you get on, so check the board at your bookmaker. Bet what you can afford to lose. If betting stops being fun, take a break.