Oklahoma City Thunder vs Denver Nuggets Prediction & Picks, October 22, 2026

Nikola Jokic has been great, but he's been averaging just 10 assists at home, and the Thunder play tough defense, making it harder for him to rack up those numbers. Since 2018, Oklahoma City lets opponents shoot a lot of threes and also gives up a lot of rebounds, but they force turnovers at a decent rate. This could limit Jokic's assist chances since he won't always have the ball in his hands. While we think Jokic has a strong chance to go under 9.5 assists, there's a real risk here because he's also capable of surprising everyone. If Denver gets into a rhythm and starts scoring from deep, he could easily find more assists than expected. Just keep an eye on how the game flows!

Oklahoma City Thunder vs Denver Nuggets: Jalen Williams Under 23.5 Pts + Rebs (-111)

For Jalen Williams to score under 23.5 points and rebounds tonight, he needs to face a solid Denver Nuggets defense. The Nuggets allow fewer rebounds than Oklahoma City gives up, which could limit Williams' chances to grab boards. Plus, Williams has been a bit more effective on the road than at home, averaging fewer combined points and rebounds in his last ten games at Paycom Center. The Thunder also give up a lot of threes, but Denver's defense has been strong against scoring, which might keep Williams from reaching that 24-point and rebound mark. While he has been a valuable player, the competition tonight is tough, and it's possible he could struggle to hit that total. The matchup should be competitive, but the risk remains that he could have an off night.

Oklahoma City Thunder vs Denver Nuggets: Jalen Williams Under 23.5 Pts + Asts (-108)

For Jalen Williams to score under 23.5 points and assists tonight, he'll need to face a tough matchup against the Denver Nuggets. The Nuggets are solid on defense and force fewer turnovers, which might limit Jalen's chances to create plays. Plus, Oklahoma City has shown they can struggle with rebounds, meaning second-chance opportunities might be fewer for him. Jalen averages 4.5 assists at home, but his total can be affected by how well the Nuggets defend. Even though our numbers see this as a strong favorite, the risk is that he could have a breakout game. Still, based on how both teams play, it looks promising for this bet to hit.

That is the whole read on this one. Prices can move before you get on, so check the board at your bookmaker. Bet what you can afford to lose. If betting stops being fun, take a break.