On Sunday 11 October 2026, Niko Price takes on Leon Shahbazyan in the UFC. Our model likes 2 bets here. The one it likes most is Leon Shahbazyan to Win, priced at -145 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.

Leon Shahbazyan to Win (-145)

Odds correct at time of publishing

Leon Shahbazyan is priced at -145 to win his fight against Niko Price, and our numbers show he has a good chance to come out on top. Shahbazyan has a strong style that favors striking and finishing fights quickly, which can put a lot of pressure on his opponents. He's younger than Price, which often helps in terms of energy and speed in the octagon. The biggest risk here is that Niko Price is a tough competitor who knows how to hang in there and can create problems for Shahbazyan. If Price can withstand the early pressure and turn it into a battle, this could be a much closer fight than expected. Still, we like Shahbazyan's chances to secure the victory. It was priced at -145 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $16.90 if it lands. The bookmakers have this as a slight favourite. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Over 1.5 Total Rounds (+185)

Odds correct at time of publishing

Niko Price is known for his striking and can finish fights quickly, while Leon Shahbazyan has solid wrestling skills and can control the pace. This matchup is tricky because both fighters have the tools to end the fight early, but they also have shown the ability to stay in longer battles. That makes it a close call on how long this fight will last. Betting on over 1.5 rounds seems like a smart choice here. With our numbers showing it's nearly a coin flip, there's a good chance they'll both take their time to figure each other out. The biggest risk is that either fighter could land a big blow and finish it fast, but if they feel each other out, we could see a more drawn-out contest. It was priced at +185 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $28.50 if it lands. This one is priced as an outside chance. Our model has this as a long shot, so keep the stake small. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

The tale of the tape:

  • Niko Price: last five L-L-L-L-W, dropped the last 4, 14% of career wins came by knockout, 192 days since the last fight
  • Leon Shahbazyan: last five L-L, dropped the last 2, 0% of career wins came by knockout, 108 days since the last fight

That is how our model reads Niko Price v Leon Shahbazyan. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.

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