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Model picks & player props
Tampa Bay Lightning
VS
Dallas Stars

Tampa Bay Lightning vs Dallas Stars Picks & Predictions

Model updated Aug 30, 6:56PM UTC

We checked every price on this game against our own numbers. The green ones are the bets worth more than they should be.

NHL
American Airlines Center, Dallas
Indoor
Sun 18 Jan 2026, 7:00PM
3
Game markets graded
0
Props graded
The model's one call for this gamethe prediction, first
Tampa Bay Lightning Moneyline -127

The model graded 3 markets for Tampa Bay Lightning vs Dallas Stars (NHL) and this is the one it backs hardest — HIGH confidence. A $100 bet returns about $179 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. Tip-off Sun 18 Jan 2026, 7:00PM at American Airlines Center.

Our confidenceHigh
Chance to win65.2%
The price says55.9%
Best price-127
The rest of this game's boardgraded market by market
Moneyline Tampa Bay Lightning High65% chance -127
Spread High74% chance —
Puck Lines High98% chance —
High = 60%+ chance to win · Lean = 40–60% · Long-shot = under 40%
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Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Moneyline
Tampa Bay Lightning
-127
+ 2 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Our chance vs the price, market by market
PickMarketModel lean
Tampa Bay LightningMoneylineThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Dallas StarsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Dallas StarsPuck LinesThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Which price is actually worth taking?

Pro shows you, in plain English, how far each price is off — and how much to put on it. No maths needed on your side.

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Injuries & who's out

Injuries & availability

Tampa Bay Lightning

  • Pontus Holmberg RWOut

Dallas Stars

  • Arttu Hyry RWOut
  • Roope Hintz COut
  • Tyler Seguin COut
  • Nils Lundkvist DOut
Availability updated Jul 1, 6:06PM UTC — some NHL rows may be stale between updates. · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & injury impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Tampa Bay Lightning vs Dallas Stars: Weather isn't a tracked factor for this fixture, and 5 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Availability5 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

Pro — weather & injury-adjusted view

See the weather- and injury-adjusted projected line and the model's with/without delta for this fixture. 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineModel leans Tampa Bay LightningNo line posted

Tampa Bay Lightning @ Dallas Stars moneyline: model lean and both sides' win form.

Puck LineDallas Stars +1.5No line posted

Tampa Bay Lightning @ Dallas Stars puck-line (spread) model lean and cover form.

Total GoalsGame totalNo line posted

Tampa Bay Lightning @ Dallas Stars total-goals model lean and scoring trends (the free board has not settled enough of these yet).

Tampa Bay Lightning @ Dallas Stars — what the model found

Our model graded 3 betting markets for Tampa Bay Lightning at Dallas Stars — 3 on the game itself and 0 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

3
Game markets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 3 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 2 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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Tampa Bay Lightning vs Dallas Stars — recent results

Dallas Stars have won 2 of their last 5 games; Tampa Bay Lightning have won 2 of their last 5.

Dallas Stars — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L2–5MINAway
L2–4MINHome
L2–3MINAway
W4–3MINAway
W4–2MINHome
Tampa Bay Lightning — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L1–2MTLHome
W1–0MTLAway
L2–3MTLHome
W3–2MTLAway
L2–3MTLAway

Tampa Bay Lightning vs Dallas Stars — recent meetings

These two have met 1 time recently: Dallas Stars won 0, Tampa Bay Lightning won 1.

DateDallas StarsTampa Bay LightningWinner
Jan 1814Tampa Bay Lightning

Who’s out or in doubt

5 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

Dallas Stars
PlayerStatus
Arttu Hyry RWOUT
Roope Hintz COUT
Tyler Seguin COUT
Nils Lundkvist DOUT
Tampa Bay Lightning
PlayerStatus
Pontus Holmberg RWOUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Tampa Bay Lightning vs Dallas Stars in the NHL. You may also see this matchup written as Lightning vs Stars, or as Stars vs Lightning. The most recent game between them was Sunday 18 January 2026 at American Airlines Center. The model has generated 3 game picks for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your NHL betting strategy for this matchup.

Head-to-head record

Final scores · 1 meeting
Tampa Bay Lightning 1–0 across the last meeting
DateGameScoreWinner
18 Jan 2026Tampa Bay Lightning @ Dallas Stars1–4Tampa Bay Lightning
Today's selected board

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