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Model picks & player props
Detroit Tigers
VS
Houston Astros

Detroit Tigers vs Houston Astros Picks & Predictions

Model updated Aug 16, 2:34PM UTC

We checked every price on this game against our own numbers. The green ones are the bets worth more than they should be.

MLB
Minute Maid Park, Houston
Indoor
Wed 17 Jun 2026, 6:10PM
20
Game markets graded
0
Props graded
Answer
The model’s one call for this game: Over 9 (Total Runs)
The model graded 20 markets for Detroit Tigers vs Houston Astros (MLB) and this is the one it backs hardest — GOOD confidence. A $100 bet returns about $220 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. For the numbers: model win probability 63.0%, fair odds 1.59, book price +120, model edge +17.6%. Tip-off Wed 17 Jun 2026, 6:10PM at Minute Maid Park.
This game is done — from the model’s graded calls on this game
Houston Astros -1.5 · $100 returned $310

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This gameBets like this sit in our formula’s best MLB market — 693 of 1,394 right (mlb total-runs unders)
This bet type · last timeAug 16
Under 9.5
Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Angels
CASHED
STAKE $100RETURNS $195
Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page

Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Total Runs
Over
10.5
+ 19 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Model prob · fair odds · edge
PickMarketModel lean
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Houston AstrosSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Houston AstrosSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Houston AstrosSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Houston AstrosSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Houston AstrosSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Houston AstrosSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro

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Who's out

Injuries & availability

Detroit Tigers

  • James Outman CFOut
  • Riley Greene LFOut
  • Wenceel Perez RFOut
  • Will Vest RPOut
  • Kerry Carpenter RFOut
  • Brant Hurter RPOut
  • Justin Verlander SPOut
  • Matt Vierling CFOut
  • Jack Flaherty SPOut
  • Burch Smith RPOut
  • Bailey Horn RPOut
  • Parker Meadows CFOut
  • Trey Sweeney SSOut
  • Reese Olson SPOut

Probable pitcher

Troy Melton SP

Houston Astros

  • Carlos Correa SSOut
  • Mike Burrows SPOut
  • Brice Matthews CFOut
  • Brandon Walter SPOut

Probable pitcher

Hayden Wesneski SP
Availability updated Aug 15, 11:10PM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Detroit Tigers vs Houston Astros: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 18 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability18 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineHouston AstrosNo line posted
2-3L5 record
L5 RF1.8L5 RA1.2Home L54-1vs Detroit Tigers L52-3Free board12-9

Houston Astros moneyline form: last five 2-3, 1.8 runs/gm.

Run LineHouston Astros run lineNo line posted
2-3L5 record
L5 RF1.8L5 RA1.2Home L54-1vs Detroit Tigers L52-3Free board14-9

Houston Astros spread form: last five 2-3, 1.8 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · Houston Astros vs Detroit TigersNo line posted

Houston Astros total runs form: last five 2-3, 1.8 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsHouston Astros team totalNo line posted
1.9runs we expect
L5 RF1.8L5 RA1.2Home L54-1vs Detroit Tigers L52-3

Houston Astros team total runs form: last five 2-3, 1.8 runs/gm.

Detroit Tigers @ Houston Astros — what the model found

Our model graded 20 betting markets for Detroit Tigers at Houston Astros — 20 on the game itself and 0 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

20
Game markets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 20 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 19 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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Detroit Tigers vs Houston Astros — recent results

Houston Astros have won 3 of their last 5 games; Detroit Tigers have won 2 of their last 5.

Houston Astros — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W10–7SEAHome
L5–10SEAHome
L1–4SFAway
W2–1SFAway
W6–3SFAway
Detroit Tigers — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L3–4CHWHome
L5–9CHWHome
W3–0CLEHome
L4–6CLEHome
W6–4CLEHome

Detroit Tigers vs Houston Astros — last-5 form comparison

Over their last five games Houston Astros are scoring 4.6 runs per game (3-2) while Detroit Tigers are at 4.4 (2-3); Houston Astros pitchers are allowing 2.6 earned runs per game versus 1.8 for Detroit Tigers.

4.6
Houston Astros runs/G
4.4
Detroit Tigers runs/G
Last 5 gamesHouston AstrosDetroit Tigers
Runs / game4.64.4
Hits / game5.44.8
Home runs / game1.01.4
Walks drawn / game1.41.6
Batter K / game1.86.0
Earned runs allowed / game2.61.8
Pitching K / game4.02.4
Walks allowed / game2.21.6
L5 record3-22-3

Detroit Tigers vs Houston Astros — recent meetings

These two have met 7 times recently: Houston Astros won 5, Detroit Tigers won 2.

DateHouston AstrosDetroit TigersWinner
Jun 2875Houston Astros
Jun 2786Houston Astros
Jun 2608Detroit Tigers
Jun 2521Houston Astros
Jun 1742Houston Astros
Jun 1742Houston Astros
Jun 1639Detroit Tigers

Who’s out or in doubt

18 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

Houston Astros
PlayerStatus
Carlos Correa SSOUT
Mike Burrows SPOUT
Brice Matthews CFOUT
Brandon Walter SPOUT
Detroit Tigers
PlayerStatus
James Outman CFOUT
Riley Greene LFOUT
Wenceel Perez RFOUT
Will Vest RPOUT
Kerry Carpenter RFOUT
Brant Hurter RPOUT
Justin Verlander SPOUT
Matt Vierling CFOUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

Detroit Tigers @ Houston Astros — model preview

Deep dive into Houston Astros vs Detroit Tigers MLB game. Find value betting opportunities. Includes analysis on key players like NA. Check out MLB predictions, MLB game picks, baseball betting preview, Houston Astros vs Detroit Tigers stats and odds.

Houston Astros vs Detroit Tigers : Over 5.5 Total Runs (-357)

Odds available at NA at time of publishing

🔒 The other 2 write-ups for this game — with how much to bet on each — are Pro.
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Cashed picks for this matchup

From the public log
DateMarketPickResult
17 Jun 26 Spread Houston Astros -1.5 ✓ HIT
17 Jun 26 Total Runs Over 5.5 ✓ HIT

Every pick — wins and losses — is logged on the public record.

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Detroit Tigers vs Houston Astros in the MLB. You may also see this matchup written as Tigers vs Astros, or as Astros vs Tigers. The most recent game between them was Wednesday 17 June 2026 at Minute Maid Park. The model has generated 20 game picks for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

Last time they played

Final scores · last 7 meetings
Houston Astros 5–2 across the last 7 meetings
DateGameScoreWinner
28 Jun 2026Houston Astros @ Detroit Tigers5–7Houston Astros
27 Jun 2026Houston Astros @ Detroit Tigers6–8Houston Astros
26 Jun 2026Houston Astros @ Detroit Tigers8–0Detroit Tigers
25 Jun 2026Houston Astros @ Detroit Tigers1–2Houston Astros
17 Jun 2026Detroit Tigers @ Houston Astros4–2Houston Astros
17 Jun 2026Detroit Tigers @ Houston Astros4–2Houston Astros
16 Jun 2026Detroit Tigers @ Houston Astros3–9Detroit Tigers
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