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Model picks & player props
Detroit Tigers
VS
Houston Astros

Detroit Tigers vs Houston Astros Picks & Predictions

Model updated Jul 27, 12:03PM UTC

Every play below is priced against our model. The bigger the green edge, the more the line is in your favour.

MLB
Minute Maid Park, Houston
Indoor
Wed 17 Jun 2026, 6:10PM
20
Game Picks
0
Player Props
Answer
Model lean: Houston Astros -2.5 (Spread)
For Detroit Tigers vs Houston Astros (MLB), model win probability 26.9%, fair odds 3.72, book price +340, model edge +4.2%, this is your free pick — unlock every other market and all player props with Pro. Tip-off Wed 17 Jun 2026, 6:10PM at Minute Maid Park.
Every pick is logged and graded — nothing hidden after the fact. See the verified record

Game picks

+EV edge in green
Spread
Houston Astros
-4
+ 19 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Model prob · fair odds · edge
PickMarketModel lean
Houston AstrosSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Houston AstrosSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Houston AstrosSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Houston AstrosSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Houston AstrosSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Houston AstrosSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Houston AstrosSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro

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Who's out

Injuries & availability

Detroit Tigers

  • Jackson Jobe SPOut
  • Kerry Carpenter RFDay-to-day
  • Brant Hurter RPOut
  • Javier Baez SSOut
  • Burch Smith RPOut
  • Jack Flaherty SPOut
  • Will Vest RPOut
  • Bailey Horn RPOut
  • Justin Verlander SPOut
  • Wenceel Perez RFOut
  • Parker Meadows CFOut
  • Trey Sweeney SSOut
  • Reese Olson SPOut

Probable pitcher

Framber Valdez SP

Houston Astros

  • Hayden Wesneski SPOut
  • Spencer Arrighetti SPOut
  • Brice Matthews CFOut
  • Mike Burrows SPOut
  • Brandon Walter SPOut
  • Carlos Correa SSOut

Probable pitcher

Ronel Blanco SP
Availability updated Jul 27, 3:12AM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Detroit Tigers vs Houston Astros: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 19 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability19 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineHouston AstrosNo line posted
3-2L5 record
L5 RF4.0L5 RA2.2Home L53-2vs Detroit Tigers L53-2Win rec8-8

Houston Astros moneyline form: last five 3-2, 4.0 runs/gm.

Run LineHouston Astros run lineNo line posted
3-2L5 record
L5 RF4.0L5 RA2.2Home L53-2vs Detroit Tigers L53-2ATS12-5

Houston Astros spread form: last five 3-2, 4.0 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · Houston Astros vs Detroit TigersNo line posted

Houston Astros total runs form: last five 3-2, 4.0 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsHouston Astros team totalNo line posted
2.6implied team total
L5 RF4.0L5 RA2.2Home L53-2vs Detroit Tigers L53-2

Houston Astros team total runs form: last five 3-2, 4.0 runs/gm.

Detroit Tigers vs Houston Astros — last-5 form comparison

Over their last five games Houston Astros are scoring 4.6 runs per game (3-2) while Detroit Tigers are at 4.4 (2-3); Houston Astros pitchers are allowing 2.6 earned runs per game versus 1.8 for Detroit Tigers.

4.6
Houston Astros runs/G
4.4
Detroit Tigers runs/G
Last 5 gamesHouston AstrosDetroit Tigers
Runs / game4.64.4
Hits / game5.44.8
Home runs / game1.01.4
Walks drawn / game1.41.6
Batter K / game1.86.0
Earned runs allowed / game2.61.8
Pitching K / game4.02.4
Walks allowed / game2.21.6
L5 record3-22-3

Detroit Tigers @ Houston Astros — model preview

<p>Deep dive into Houston Astros vs Detroit Tigers MLB game. Find value betting opportunities. Includes analysis on key players like NA. Check out MLB predictions, MLB game picks, baseball betting preview, Houston Astros vs Detroit Tigers stats and odds.</p>

Houston Astros vs Detroit Tigers : Over 5.5 Total Runs (-357)

Odds available at NA at time of publishing

Houston Astros vs Detroit Tigers : Over 6 Total Runs (-323)

Odds available at NA at time of publishing

Houston Astros vs Detroit Tigers : Over 5 Total Runs (-667)

Odds available at NA at time of publishing

Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
7
Total Picks
Hit Rate

Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

DateMarketPickResult
17 Jun 26 Spread Houston Astros -4 ✓ HIT
17 Jun 26 Spread Houston Astros -2 ✓ HIT
17 Jun 26 Spread Houston Astros -3 ✓ HIT
17 Jun 26 Spread Houston Astros -4.5 ✓ HIT
17 Jun 26 Spread Houston Astros -1.5 ✓ HIT
17 Jun 26 Spread Houston Astros -3.5 ✓ HIT
17 Jun 26 Spread Houston Astros -2.5 ✓ HIT

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Detroit Tigers vs Houston Astros in the MLB. The most recent or upcoming game is scheduled for Wednesday 17 June 2026 at Minute Maid Park. The model has generated 20 game picks for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

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