Minnesota Lynx vs New York Liberty Prediction & Picks (Jonquel Jones Key Factor): Odds Analysis & Top Props

The Minnesota Lynx have been playing strong defense lately, which makes me think this game will have lower scoring. I'm picking the total points to be under 184.5. Our numbers suggest a combined score closer to 162.9, so that's a solid gap. The Lynx have a better net score difference, and they also have less travel distance, which can help keep their energy up. However, the New York Liberty are also a tough team, so there's a chance they could push the score higher than expected. It was priced at -238 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $14.20 if it lands. This is an alternate line, so it is not the main number on the board and the price moves with it. The bookmakers have this as a clear favourite. Our model leans this way without loving it. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Jonquel Jones Under 16.5 Points and Assists (-110)

Jonquel Jones is a talented player, but she hasn't been putting up huge numbers lately. In her recent games, her points and assists combined have been lower than usual, averaging just under 16.5. The Minnesota Lynx have a strong defense, which can make it tough for her to get high scores, especially at home in Target Center where they play hard. The risk here is that Jones can surprise everyone and have a breakout game, but given her recent performance and the way the Lynx defend, betting on her to score under 16.5 points and assists makes sense. This matchup feels pretty close, so while there's no guarantee, the numbers suggest this is a smart pick. It was priced at -110 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $19.10 if it lands. The bookmakers have this as a slight favourite. Our model leans this way without loving it. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Sabrina Ionescu Under 24.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (-110)

The odds for Sabrina Ionescu to score under 24.5 combined points, rebounds, and assists look appealing. Our numbers show that she has been a bit off her usual game lately, averaging fewer offensive rebounds and three-pointers than normal. Her recent performance suggests she might struggle to hit that mark against a strong Lynx defense. There's a real chance this could go either way since both teams are competitive and Ionescu's stats are closer to the lower end of her range. If she gets into foul trouble or the Lynx manage to limit her chances, it could be tough for her to reach 25 combined. It was priced at -110 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $19.10 if it lands. The bookmakers have this as a slight favourite. Our model leans this way without loving it. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Breanna Stewart Under 7.5 Rebounds (+109)

Breanna Stewart needs to grab under 7.5 rebounds tonight. While she's a fantastic player, her recent stats show she's been a bit off her usual pace. In her last five games, she has only averaged about one offensive rebound, which is lower than her typical performance. The matchup against the Minnesota Lynx could be tricky too, as they have been strong on the boards lately. Plus, Stewart has had more turnovers than usual, which might limit her time with the ball and chances to grab rebounds. This pick feels like a close call, so there's a real chance it could go either way. It was priced at +109 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $20.90 if it lands. This one is priced as an outside chance. Our model has this as a long shot, so keep the stake small. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

That is how our model reads Minnesota Lynx v New York Liberty. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.