On Friday 16 October 2026, Liverpool play Brighton and Hove Albion in the EPL. Our model likes 2 bets here. The one it likes most is Liverpool Draw No Bet, priced at -172 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.
Odds correct at time of publishing
As Liverpool prepares to face Brighton, the stakes couldn't be higher. Despite a mixed bag in recent home form, the Reds have a compelling reason to believe they can secure a win here. Their last five outings at Anfield saw them create an average of 14.4 shots per game, demonstrating their relentless attacking intent, even if they're struggling to convert chances—averaging just 0.8 goals at home lately. Brighton, while a resilient side, has shown vulnerabilities on the road, conceding an average of 1.4 goals away. The expected goals (xG) statistics tell a similar story, highlighting that Liverpool’s offensive pressure can exploit any defensive lapses. With the odds leaning in Liverpool’s favor, a Draw No Bet on the home side feels like a confident choice. They may not be firing on all cylinders, but the potential for a crucial three points is too enticing to ignore.
Liverpool vs Brighton and Hove Albion: Over 1.5 Total Goals (-588)
Odds correct at time of publishing
As Liverpool prepares to face Brighton, the stage is set for a match that promises to deliver at least a couple of goals. Despite some inconsistent performances recently—evident in their home record of 0-4-1 over the last five—Liverpool has maintained a solid attacking presence. They've averaged 14.4 shots at home, indicating their intent, even if they’ve struggled to convert chances lately. Brighton, on the other hand, has shown resilience in their attacking play. When these two teams meet, history suggests goals are likely, and with Liverpool's ability to bounce back, the odds favor the over on 1.5 goals. Considering the attacking potential mixed with both teams’ recent trends, betting on over 1.5 goals feels like a prudent choice. It’s a scenario where the law of averages and attacking stats align, setting the stage for a lively encounter.
That is how our model reads Liverpool v Brighton and Hove Albion. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.
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