On Wednesday 21 October 2026, Liverpool play Arsenal in the EPL. Our model likes 2 bets here. The one it likes most is Liverpool +0.75 Goal Handicap, priced at -204 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.
Odds correct at time of publishing
Liverpool facing Arsenal at Anfield is always a fiery clash, but recent trends tilt the scales in favor of the Reds. Despite Liverpool's uneven home record of 3-1-1 in their last five, they’ve been creating chances, averaging nearly 14 shots per game, which hints at their attacking potential. On the flip side, Arsenal’s impressive away form—four straight wins—might seem intimidating, but they’ve faced struggles against top opposition recently, going 1-3-1 in their last five against Liverpool. The Reds' defensive solidity at home, conceding just 0.8 goals in the same timeframe, provides a sturdy foundation. With Arsenal managing only 1.2 goals on the road, the expectation is that Liverpool can edge this one out. Betting on Liverpool -0.75 not only accounts for their attacking prowess but also their ability to stifle Arsenal's offense, making this a compelling wager.
Liverpool vs Arsenal: Liverpool Moneyline (+220)
Odds correct at time of publishing
When Liverpool hosts Arsenal, expect a thrilling encounter, especially with Liverpool’s recent form at home showing a slight uptick despite their mixed results. They've averaged 1 goal at Anfield recently, even if the expected goals (xG) metrics suggest they’re not firing on all cylinders just yet. However, they’ve shown resilience, taking 3 wins from their last five at home, albeit with a challenging 0-4-1 mark against the spread. Arsenal, on the other hand, has been impressive away, racking up 4 wins in their last five matches. But their defense has let in an average of 1.4 goals per game at Anfield historically, which could play into Liverpool’s hands. With the Reds eager to assert dominance in a high-stakes matchup, they look poised to turn the tide and secure a crucial victory, making them a compelling bet for the win.
That is how our model reads Liverpool v Arsenal. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.
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