On Monday 7 September 2026, Florida State Seminoles play SMU Mustangs in college football. Our model likes 6 bets here. The one it likes most is Florida State Seminoles +0.5 on the Line, priced at +110 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.

Florida State Seminoles +0.5 on the Line (+110)

Odds available at William Hill at time of publishing

On Monday 7 September 2026, Florida State Seminoles host SMU Mustangs in college football. The bet we are looking at is Florida State Seminoles 0.5 Point Spread. On this line Florida State Seminoles start with 0.5 points in hand, so they can lose by less than that and this still wins. This is one of the bookmaker's alternate lines, not the main one, so the price is different. It was priced at +110 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $21 if it lands. That price was showing at William Hill. Our model leans this way, without being sure. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move. It was priced at +110 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $21 if it lands. The number next to the team is the handicap, and that team's score is adjusted by it before the bet is settled. This is an alternate line, so it is not the main number on the board and the price moves with it. This one is priced as an outside chance. Our model has this as a long shot, so keep the stake small. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Under 53 Total Points (+106)

Odds available at William Hill at time of publishing

On Monday 7 September 2026, Florida State Seminoles host SMU Mustangs in college football. The bet we are looking at is Under 53 Total Points. This wins if the two sides score fewer than 53 points between them. This is one of the bookmaker's alternate lines, not the main one, so the price is different. It was priced at +106 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $20.60 if it lands. That price was showing at William Hill. Our model leans this way, without being sure. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move. It was priced at +106 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $20.60 if it lands. This is an alternate line, so it is not the main number on the board and the price moves with it. This one is priced as an outside chance. Our model has this as a long shot, so keep the stake small. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Florida State Seminoles to Win (+125)

Odds available at BetMGM at time of publishing

On Monday 7 September 2026, Florida State Seminoles host SMU Mustangs in college football. The bet we are looking at is Florida State Seminoles Moneyline. This one only needs Florida State Seminoles to win the game. It was priced at +125 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $22.50 if it lands. That price was showing at BetMGM. Our model has this one as a long shot, so keep the bet small. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move. It was priced at +125 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $22.50 if it lands. This one is priced as an outside chance. Our model has this as a long shot, so keep the stake small. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Duce Robinson Under 67.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

Odds available at Bovada at time of publishing

On Monday 7 September 2026, Florida State Seminoles host SMU Mustangs in college football. The bet we are looking at is Duce Robinson Under 67.5 Receiving Yards. This wins if Duce Robinson finishes with fewer than 67.5 receiving yards. It was priced at -110 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $19.09 if it lands. That price was showing at Bovada. Our model leans this way, without being sure. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move. It was priced at -110 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $19.09 if it lands. The bookmakers have this as a slight favourite. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Ousmane Kromah Under 58.5 Rushing Yards (-108)

Odds available at BetOnline at time of publishing

On Monday 7 September 2026, Florida State Seminoles host SMU Mustangs in college football. The bet we are looking at is Ousmane Kromah Under 58.5 Rushing Yards. This wins if Ousmane Kromah finishes with fewer than 58.5 rushing yards. It was priced at -108 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $19.26 if it lands. That price was showing at BetOnline. Our model likes this one a lot. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move. It was priced at -108 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $19.26 if it lands. The bookmakers have this as a slight favourite. Our model leans this way without loving it. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Ashton Daniels Under 202.5 Passing Yards (-114)

Odds available at BetOnline at time of publishing

On Monday 7 September 2026, Florida State Seminoles host SMU Mustangs in college football. The bet we are looking at is Ashton Daniels Under 202.5 Passing Yards. This wins if Ashton Daniels finishes with fewer than 202.5 passing yards. It was priced at -114 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $18.77 if it lands. That price was showing at BetOnline. Our model likes this one a lot. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move. It was priced at -114 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $18.77 if it lands. The bookmakers have this as a slight favourite. Our model leans this way without loving it. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

That is how our model reads Florida State Seminoles v SMU Mustangs. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.

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