On Saturday 17 October 2026, Brentford play Liverpool in the EPL. Our model likes 2 bets here. The one it likes most is Liverpool +0 Goal Handicap, priced at +100 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.
Odds correct at time of publishing
As Liverpool heads to Brentford, they carry a strong historical edge, winning three of their last five encounters. While Brentford's recent home form shows a shaky 1-4-0 record, they did manage to average a healthy 2.4 goals when playing at home in those last five matches. However, their xG stats tell a different story, suggesting they might struggle to convert chances against a resolute Liverpool defense. The Reds are no strangers to tough away matches, boasting a solid 2-2-1 record on the road lately. With an average of 1.8 goals per game in their away fixtures, they seem poised to exploit Brentford's defensive vulnerabilities. Brentford's tendency to concede 1.2 goals to opponents further favors the visitors. Given the form and historical performance, backing Liverpool on the handicap looks like a savvy play in this matchup.
Brentford vs Liverpool: Liverpool Draw No Bet (+105)
Odds correct at time of publishing
As Brentford prepares to host Liverpool, recent trends suggest that the Reds are primed for a positive result. Despite a mixed bag of performances on the road, they’ve shown resilience, notching two wins and two draws in their last five away fixtures. Brentford, meanwhile, struggles with just one win at home in their last five, highlighting their vulnerability, especially against top-tier opposition. Liverpool’s attacking prowess is evident, averaging 1.8 goals in their recent away matches, while Brentford has faltered defensively, conceding an average of 1.2 goals at home. With the xG numbers suggesting that Liverpool is generating more quality chances, their ability to secure at least a draw looks promising. Given the Draw No Bet market, backing Liverpool offers a safety net that feels too good to pass up as they strive to reclaim their place among the league's elite.
That is how our model reads Brentford v Liverpool. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.
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