On Sunday 11 October 2026, Brendan Allen takes on Christian Leroy Duncan in the UFC. Our model likes one bet here. The one it likes most is Christian Leroy Duncan to Win, priced at +122 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.

Christian Leroy Duncan to Win (+122)

Odds available at BetOnline at time of publishing

Christian Leroy Duncan has been showing great promise lately, making him a solid choice to win against Brendan Allen. Duncan has a striking style that can keep the pressure on, while Allen is known for his grappling skills. This fight is rated very close, so it could go either way, but Duncan's ability to land significant strikes might give him the upper hand. The most concrete risk is that both fighters have similar durability, so it may come down to who can execute their game plan better. A win isn't guaranteed, but Duncan seems well-positioned to take this one home. It was priced at +122 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $22.20 if it lands. This one is priced as an outside chance. Our model has this as a long shot, so keep the stake small. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

The tale of the tape:

  • Brendan Allen: last five W-W-W-L-L, on a 3-fight win streak, 6% of career wins came by knockout, 119 days since the last fight
  • Christian Leroy Duncan: last five W-W-W-W-W, on a 5-fight win streak, 31% of career wins came by knockout, 77 days since the last fight

That is how our model reads Brendan Allen v Christian Leroy Duncan. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.

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