On Sunday 11 October 2026, Brendan Allen takes on Christian Leroy Duncan in the UFC. Our model likes 3 bets here. The one it likes most is Under 3.5 Total Rounds, priced at +107 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.

Under 3.5 Total Rounds (+107)

Odds correct at time of publishing

Brendan Allen and Christian Leroy Duncan are set to clash in the Octagon, and it looks like this fight could be shorter than many expect. Both fighters are known for their finishing skills, with Allen often looking to take the fight to the ground and Duncan preferring to strike. With Allen's durability being slightly lower, he might get caught if he tries to stand and trade too much, which could lead to an early finish. Our numbers suggest there's a good chance this fight will wrap up before the fourth round. With a combined total expected at about two rounds, betting on under 3.5 rounds seems appealing. The biggest risk here is that both fighters could be cautious, which might drag the fight out longer than anticipated. But given their styles, we think under 3.5 rounds is a solid pick. It was priced at +107 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $20.70 if it lands. This one is priced as an outside chance. Our model has this as a long shot, so keep the stake small. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Christian Leroy Duncan to Win (+104)

Odds correct at time of publishing

Christian Leroy Duncan has been showing great promise lately, making him a solid choice to win against Brendan Allen. Duncan has a striking style that can keep the pressure on, while Allen is known for his grappling skills. This fight is rated very close, so it could go either way, but Duncan's ability to land significant strikes might give him the upper hand. The most concrete risk is that both fighters have similar durability, so it may come down to who can execute their game plan better. A win isn't guaranteed, but Duncan seems well-positioned to take this one home. It was priced at +104 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $20.40 if it lands. This one is priced as an outside chance. Our model has this as a long shot, so keep the stake small. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Brendan Allen -5.5 on the Line (+120)

Odds correct at time of publishing

Brendan Allen is a strong grappler facing Christian Leroy Duncan, who is known for his striking. Allen needs to take the fight to the ground to control the pace and keep Duncan from unleashing his punches. Betting on Allen to win by more than 5.5 points gives you a chance to cash in if he can dominate with his wrestling. The biggest risk is that if Duncan can keep it standing, he might land enough strikes to make it competitive. Still, Allen's ability to grapple could make the difference in this matchup. It was priced at +120 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $22 if it lands. The number next to the team is the handicap, and that team's score is adjusted by it before the bet is settled. This one is priced as an outside chance. Our model has this as a long shot, so keep the stake small. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

The tale of the tape:

  • Brendan Allen: last five W-W-W-L-L, on a 3-fight win streak, 6% of career wins came by knockout, 127 days since the last fight
  • Christian Leroy Duncan: last five W-W-W-W-W, on a 5-fight win streak, 31% of career wins came by knockout, 85 days since the last fight

That is how our model reads Brendan Allen v Christian Leroy Duncan. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.

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