On Thursday 17 September 2026, Atlanta Dream play Connecticut Sun in the WNBA. Our model likes 5 bets here. The one it likes most is Under 170 Total Points, priced at -110 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.

Under 170 Total Points (-110)

Odds available at Fanatics at time of publishing

The total points line for the game between the Atlanta Dream and Connecticut Sun is set at 170, but our numbers suggest it should be lower, around 166.1. Both teams have been playing tightly contested games lately, and the close matchup means they might struggle to score high. Travel could also play a factor, as the Sun have traveled quite a bit further than the Dream. With both teams being evenly matched and the potential for a lower-scoring game, this pick leans toward the under. Just remember, one big run from either team can always change things. It was priced at -110 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $19.10 if it lands. The bookmakers have this as a slight favourite. Our model leans this way without loving it. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Connecticut Sun +13.5 on the Line (+112)

Odds available at BetRivers at time of publishing

For the Connecticut Sun to cover the spread, they need to keep the game within 13.5 points against the Atlanta Dream. The Sun have been competitive lately, and our numbers suggest they might lose by about 10 points, which is close enough to give them a good shot at covering the spread. The Sun also have a slight advantage in overall performance, despite the travel distance being a bit more than the Dream's. The main risk here is the Dream playing at home, where they can really feed off their crowd. It was priced at +112 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $21.20 if it lands. The number next to the team is the handicap, and that team's score is adjusted by it before the bet is settled. This is an alternate line, so it is not the main number on the board and the price moves with it. This one is priced as an outside chance. Our model leans this way without loving it. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Angel Reese Over 15.5 Rebounds and Assists (-110)

Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing

Angel Reese is on a hot streak, showing off her skills with more points and field goals than usual. She's not just scoring, though; her recent numbers show she's also grabbing a lot of rebounds and dishing out assists. With the Atlanta Dream playing at home, they'll be looking to keep up the pressure against the Connecticut Sun, who have struggled at times to contain strong players like Reese. Betting on Angel Reese to get over 15.5 rebounds and assists looks promising. The risk here is that both teams are closely matched, so the game could go either way. Still, with Reese playing so well lately, this bet seems like it has a decent chance to hit. It was priced at -110 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $19.10 if it lands. The bookmakers have this as a slight favourite. Our model leans this way without loving it. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Naz Hillmon Over 12.5 Points and Rebounds (-112)

Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing

Naz Hillmon needs to score and grab rebounds for the Atlanta Dream to go over 12.5 combined points and rebounds tonight. She has been stepping up her game lately, averaging over 10 points and showing good effort with her rebounding. Plus, she's been taking more shots from long range, which could help her numbers. However, the risk is that the Connecticut Sun are a tough team and may keep the game close, limiting her opportunities. Still, her recent form gives her a solid chance to hit this mark. It was priced at -112 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $18.90 if it lands. This is an alternate line, so it is not the main number on the board and the price moves with it. The bookmakers have this as a slight favourite. Our model leans this way without loving it. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Jordin Canada Under 6.5 Assists (+107)

Odds available at William Hill at time of publishing

Jordin Canada is facing some tough defense from the Connecticut Sun, which might make it hard for her to rack up assists. In her recent games, she has been getting fewer assists than usual, averaging just under 3. This matchup could be a challenge for her since the Sun are known for their strong defensive plays, which could limit her chances to set up her teammates. Betting on Canada to have under 6.5 assists feels like a smart move here. While the odds are close to even, the Sun's defense could really put a dent in her numbers. Just keep in mind that she might surprise us, but based on the trends, it looks like a solid bet. It was priced at +107 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $20.70 if it lands. This one is priced as an outside chance. Our model has this as a long shot, so keep the stake small. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

That is how our model reads Atlanta Dream v Connecticut Sun. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.

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