On Friday 23 October 2026, Aston Villa play Fulham in the EPL. Our model likes 2 bets here. The one it likes most is Aston Villa +0 Goal Handicap, priced at -208 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.
Odds correct at time of publishing
As Aston Villa prepares to host Fulham, recent trends heavily favor the home side. Villa boasts a robust record against Fulham, winning four of their last five encounters, and they’ve shown resilience at home, even if their recent form has been a bit mixed with two wins in the last five. However, their average of 1.6 goals at home suggests they can find the net consistently, and they’ve outperformed Fulham in expected goals, even when both teams have struggled offensively lately. Fulham, on the other hand, is faltering on the road, scoring just 0.4 goals in their last five away matches. With Villa’s attacking prowess peeking through and Fulham's lack of firepower away from Craven Cottage, backing Aston Villa to cover the handicap seems like a smart play, especially given their strong historical performance against this opponent. This matchup could easily tilt in Villa's favor.
Aston Villa vs Fulham: Over 1.5 Total Goals (-417)
Odds correct at time of publishing
As Aston Villa prepares to host Fulham, the stage is set for a match that could easily see a few goals. Villa has shown a knack for finding the net at home, averaging 1.6 goals over their last five matches, while Fulham's away struggles have been glaring, netting just 0.4 goals per game. Historically, Villa has dominated this matchup, boasting a 4-0-1 record in their last five encounters. With both teams generating a reasonable number of shots, Villa averages 10.6 attempts at home, while Fulham has been taking 11.4 on the road, suggesting chances will be created. The recent form also hints at a trend; Villa’s opponents have managed to score an average of 1.8 goals against them at home.
That is how our model reads Aston Villa v Fulham. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.
Unlock the rest of this one
You're reading the free preview. One plan unlocks the full article and every pick we back — every league, every day.
Unlock the full article