On Friday 23 October 2026, Liverpool play Brighton and Hove Albion in the EPL. Our model likes 2 bets here. The one it likes most is Liverpool -0.25 Goal Handicap, priced at -125 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.
Odds correct at time of publishing
As Liverpool hosts Brighton, the stage is set for an intriguing matchup. While Liverpool's recent home form shows a mixed bag with a 0-4-1 record in their last five at Anfield, the underlying stats tell a different story. Despite averaging just 0.8 goals at home, they've been creating ample chances, racking up an average of 14 shots per game. Their attacking prowess, albeit underwhelming in conversion, hints at a potential breakout. Brighton, on the other hand, has struggled defensively lately, conceding an average of 1.4 goals away. Liverpool's expected goals (xG) numbers suggest they're due for a more clinical performance, especially against a side that’s been vulnerable. Backing Liverpool at -0.25 gives you a cushion, and with the home crowd behind them, a narrow victory feels like a likely outcome. This match could be the spark they need to reignite their season.
Liverpool vs Brighton and Hove Albion: Liverpool Moneyline (+115)
Odds correct at time of publishing
As Liverpool gears up to face Brighton on October 25, recent trends suggest a promising outcome for the Reds. Despite a mixed home record of 3-1-1 in their last five matches, the underlying stats hint at an upward trajectory. They've averaged a solid 14 shots per game, indicating a persistent attacking threat, even if their finishing has faltered with just a goal per game recently. Brighton, on the other hand, has struggled defensively, allowing an average of 1.4 goals per game away. Liverpool's defense, slightly more resolute at home, has managed to limit opponents to 0.8 goals in their last five matches. With an expected goals (xG) average hovering around 0 for Liverpool at home, it’s clear they’re due for a breakthrough. Overall, the combination of Liverpool’s attacking prowess and Brighton’s defensive vulnerabilities creates an enticing case for a Liverpool victory in this matchup.
That is how our model reads Liverpool v Brighton and Hove Albion. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.
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