On Wednesday 21 October 2026, Arsenal play Everton in the EPL. Our model likes 2 bets here. The one it likes most is Everton +1.75 Goal Handicap, priced at -200 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.
Odds correct at time of publishing
As Arsenal hosts Everton, it's hard to ignore the Gunners' formidable home record, but let's dig a little deeper. Arsenal has enjoyed a stellar run at home, winning their last five without losing. However, Everton's recent form, particularly away from home, has been troubling, with just one win in their last five overall. Yet, they’ve shown resilience against Arsenal historically, managing to snag points in three of their last five encounters. What stands out is Arsenal's defensive solidity, having conceded just 0.4 goals at home in their last five, while Everton has struggled to find the back of the net, averaging just 1 goal in their away matches. Given the handicap of 1.75, backing Everton makes sense. They may just keep it close enough to cover, especially with Arsenal juggling Champions League commitments. Expect a battle, but Everton has the potential to frustrate the hosts and beat the line.
Arsenal vs Everton: Under 4.5 Total Goals (-714)
Odds correct at time of publishing
As Arsenal prepares to host Everton, the stage is set for a clash where goals might be at a premium. The Gunners, boasting a remarkable home record of 5-0-0 recently, have been resilient defensively, allowing just 0.4 goals on average in their last five home matches. Meanwhile, Everton’s struggles away from home are evident, with only one goal scored in their last five travels. Both teams are creating chances, yet their recent xG figures indicate a lack of finishing prowess. Arsenal averages just 2.2 goals at home, while Everton's output drops to one away. With the home side's defensive discipline and the visitors' offensive woes, it's hard to envision a high-scoring affair. Taking the under on 4.5 total goals seems to be a smart play, aligning perfectly with the trends and records at play.
That is how our model reads Arsenal v Everton. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.
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