On Sunday 11 October 2026, Andre Fili takes on Kai Kamaka III in the UFC. Our model likes 2 bets here. The one it likes most is Andre Fili -3.5 on the Line, priced at +110 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.

Andre Fili -3.5 on the Line (+110)

Odds correct at time of publishing

Andre Fili and Kai Kamaka III both have their strengths, but Fili's reach advantage of 5 inches could make a big difference in this fight. He's a solid striker who can keep Kamaka at bay, making it harder for Kamaka to close the distance and land his strikes. Betting on Fili to win by at least 4 points feels reasonable given that our numbers show this matchup is quite close, nearly a coin flip. The biggest risk is that both fighters are durable and tough, so this fight could go the distance. Still, Fili has the tools to control the fight and secure a solid win. It was priced at +110 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $21 if it lands. The number next to the team is the handicap, and that team's score is adjusted by it before the bet is settled. This one is priced as an outside chance. Our model has this as a long shot, so keep the stake small. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Kai Kamaka to Win (+128)

Odds correct at time of publishing

Kai Kamaka has been looking sharp, showing solid skills in both striking and grappling. Kamaka has the ability to control the fight and put pressure on Fili, which could help him secure a win. The biggest risk here is that both fighters are tough and can withstand a lot, so it might come down to who can keep up their pace longer. Still, with Kamaka's recent performances and his chances being rated so evenly, taking him to win makes a lot of sense. It was priced at +128 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $22.80 if it lands. This one is priced as an outside chance. Our model has this as a long shot, so keep the stake small. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

The tale of the tape:

  • Andre Fili: last five L-L-W-L-W, dropped the last 2, 10% of career wins came by knockout, 113 days since the last fight
  • Kai Kamaka III: last five L-W-L-L-W, lost the last fight, 0% of career wins came by knockout, 92 days since the last fight

That is how our model reads Andre Fili v Kai Kamaka III. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.

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