On Sunday 11 October 2026, Andre Fili takes on Kai Kamaka III in the UFC. Our model likes one bet here. The one it likes most is Kai Kamaka to Win, priced at +134 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.

Kai Kamaka to Win (+134)

Odds available at BetOnline at time of publishing

Kai Kamaka has been looking sharp, showing solid skills in both striking and grappling. Kamaka has the ability to control the fight and put pressure on Fili, which could help him secure a win. The biggest risk here is that both fighters are tough and can withstand a lot, so it might come down to who can keep up their pace longer. Still, with Kamaka's recent performances and his chances being rated so evenly, taking him to win makes a lot of sense. It was priced at +134 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $23.40 if it lands. This one is priced as an outside chance. Our model has this as a long shot, so keep the stake small. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

The tale of the tape:

  • Kai Kamaka III: last five L-W-L-L-W, lost the last fight, 0% of career wins came by knockout, 84 days since the last fight
  • Andre Fili: last five L-L-W-L-W, dropped the last 2, 10% of career wins came by knockout, 105 days since the last fight

That is how our model reads Andre Fili v Kai Kamaka III. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.

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