On Saturday 26 September 2026, Valencia play Athletic Bilbao in La Liga. Our model likes 2 bets here. The one it likes most is Valencia Moneyline, priced at +245 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.

Valencia vs Athletic Bilbao: Valencia Moneyline (+245)

Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing

As Valencia prepares to host Athletic Bilbao, there's a compelling case for backing the home side. Although their recent form shows a struggle, with only one win in five, they have historically fared well against Bilbao, claiming three victories in their last five encounters. Their home performances, while inconsistent, suggest they can be a tough nut to crack at the Mestalla. While Valencia has averaged just 0.8 goals per game recently, they’ve been generating a decent number of shots, hinting at potential breakthroughs. On the flip side, Athletic's defensive woes have allowed 2 goals per game in their last five away matches. With Valencia’s home advantage and their head-to-head record tipping the scales, a win for Valencia isn’t just a hope; it feels like a distinct possibility, especially with the odds giving us an enticing value.

Valencia vs Athletic Bilbao: Valencia +0 Goal Handicap (+135)

Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing

As Valencia gears up to host Athletic Bilbao, there’s a compelling case for backing the home side on a zero handicap. While Valencia has struggled recently, with just one win in their last five matches, they’ve historically held an edge over Bilbao, winning three of their last five encounters. Bilbao's away form has been shaky too, with a blend of draws and losses in their last five, and they’ve conceded an average of two goals in their last two away outings. Valencia's attack, despite netting only 0.8 goals per game lately, has shown potential with an average of 10.4 shots, hinting that they can create chances. Given these dynamics, Valencia at home provides a glimmer of hope to turn things around, making them a solid pick on the handicap. The backdrop of their historical success against Bilbao adds an enticing layer to this bet.

That is how our model reads Valencia v Athletic Bilbao. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.

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