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UFC predictions for Sunday, October 11: the model leans Ernesta Kareckaite

10 UFC fights on Sunday. The model's strongest pick is Ernesta Kareckaite to win, a LEAN-confidence call.

By Tyler Brennan · Published Oct 10, 12:00 AM UTC · Updated Oct 11, 9:30 PM UTC

Written with our model's data and an AI writing assistant, checked against our rules. Meet our writers

Allen Frye Jr. vs RJ Harris

Sun Oct 11
Our pick: Allen Frye Jr. to win+225

LONG-SHOT — about a 3 in 10 chance by our numbers

For Allen Frye Jr. to win this fight against RJ Harris, he needs to stay on the offensive and use his striking skills effectively.

Andre Fili vs Kai Kamaka III

Sun Oct 11
Our pick: Kai Kamaka to win+128

LEAN — about a 5 in 10 chance by our numbers

Kai Kamaka has been looking sharp, showing solid skills in both striking and grappling.

Brendan Allen vs Christian Leroy Duncan

Sun Oct 11
Christian Leroy Duncan at Brendan Allen · Moneyline Which side the model backs, and why · Pro

Brendson Ribeiro vs Felipe Franco

Sun Oct 11
Felipe Franco at Brendson Ribeiro · Moneyline Which side the model backs, and why · Pro

Gerald Meerschaert vs Julius Walker

Sun Oct 11
Julius Walker at Gerald Meerschaert · Moneyline Which side the model backs, and why · Pro

Ismael Bonfim vs Francisco Prado

Sun Oct 11
Francisco Prado at Ismael Bonfim · Moneyline Which side the model backs, and why · Pro

Jai Herbert vs Matheus Camilo

Sun Oct 11
Matheus Camilo at Jai Herbert · Moneyline Which side the model backs, and why · Pro

Melissa Gatto vs Ernesta Kareckaite

Sun Oct 11
Top pick: Ernesta Kareckaite to win+105

LEAN — about a 6 in 10 chance by our numbers

For Ernesta Kareckaite to win her fight against Melissa Gatto, she needs to keep the pressure on and outlast her opponent.

Niko Price vs Leon Shahbazyan

Sun Oct 11
Leon Shahbazyan at Niko Price · Moneyline Which side the model backs, and why · Pro

Otari Tanzilovi vs Malcolm Wellmaker

Sun Oct 11
Malcolm Wellmaker at Otari Tanzilovi · Moneyline Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
How we pick these games

Our model looks at each team's recent form, injuries, rest and the price on offer, and works out how likely each result is. When its number says a bet is more likely to land than the price suggests, the bet makes our list. For each game we show the one main-line bet it likes most. HIGH means it lands about 6 or more times in 10 by our numbers. LEAN means about 4 to 6 times in 10. LONG-SHOT means less than 4 in 10: a bigger payout and a smaller chance. No pick is a sure thing.

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