Today's Top MLB Prop Bet Picks & Predictions, Wednesday 09/17 (Tommy Edman Highlights): Finding the Edge

The bet on Shohei Ohtani to achieve over 5.5 strikeouts is backed by his consistent performance. Despite his recent average being low, Ohtani is a proven pitcher with the ability to exceed this line. The implied probability of 64.1% indicates a strong likelihood of the outcome. Additionally, the Dodgers are playing at home, a setting where Ohtani may feel more comfortable and perform better. Furthermore, the model edge of 17.0% suggests that the model sees value in this bet that the market may not have fully accounted for. While his current streaks are not impressive, baseball is a sport of averages and Ohtani's overall performance indicates a good chance for him to bounce back. Therefore, betting on Ohtani to achieve over 5.5 strikeouts is a statistically sound choice.

Mookie Betts (LAD) Over 0.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (-154)

The Over 0.5 bet on Mookie Betts is promising due to his strong performance at home and against the Phillies. Betts has an impressive track record, with an average of 2 hits and 1 run per game in his last five home games. Against the Phillies, his stats are even better, with 1.4 hits and 1 run per game on average. His RBI average at home (2) and against the Phillies (0.6) also supports this bet. Furthermore, Betts is currently on a hit streak both overall and at home. While his overall last five games' performance may seem lower, his specific performance at home and against this opponent makes the Over 0.5 bet a solid choice.

Shohei Ohtani (LAD) Under 1.5 Singles (-286)

The under 1.5 bet for Shohei Ohtani in the Batter Singles market is a good choice based on his recent performance data. Over the last five games, Ohtani's average for singles is just 0.6 overall and 0.8 at home. Even more striking, his average drops to 0.2 when facing the Phillies, suggesting he struggles against their pitching. His overall hit streak of 4 games and home hit streak of 2 games might seem promising, but it's important to note that these include all types of hits, not just singles. Furthermore, Ohtani's average hits per game are just 1 overall and 1.2 at home, implying that even when he does get hits, they're not typically singles. Given these stats, it's statistically unlikely for Ohtani to hit over 1.5 singles in the upcoming game against the Phillies.

Alex Call (WSN) Under 3.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (-175)

The bet on Alex Call for Under 3.5 in the Batter Hits Runs RBIs market is backed by his recent performance data. Over the last five games, Call's batting average is low at 0.2, with no runs scored and an average of just 0.2 RBIs. His performance is consistent both overall and away from home. Even when considering his performance against the Dodgers, his averages are still below the line set for this bet. Despite an 8-game hit streak, the lack of runs and RBIs, key components of this bet, make the Under 3.5 a good choice. The data suggests that while Call may get a hit, his contributions to runs and RBIs are likely to be minimal, keeping his total under the line of 3.5.

Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) Under 0.5 Stolen Bases (-400)

The bet on Pete Crow-Armstrong for Under 0.5 in the Batter Stolen Bases market is a solid choice based on his recent performance data. His average stolen bases over the last five games overall and away games are both at 0.2, which is under the line of 0.5. Furthermore, his stolen bases average against the Pirates is even lower at 0. This suggests that he is less likely to steal a base in this match. Additionally, his current hit streak is low, with an overall streak of 1 and an away streak of 2. This indicates a lower likelihood of him getting on base in the first place, which reduces his chances of stealing a base. Therefore, the Under 0.5 bet for Crow-Armstrong's stolen bases is statistically justified.