Here are our La Liga picks for Sunday 6 September 2026. Our model likes 6 bets here. The one it likes most is Dimitri Foulquier (Valencia) Over 0.5 Shots, priced at +195 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.
Dimitri Foulquier (Valencia) Over 0.5 Shots (+195)
Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing
As Valencia prepares to face Barcelona, keep an eye on Dimitri Foulquier for an intriguing player prop bet. Although his recent shooting numbers have been modest—averaging just 0.2 shots at home over the last five games—the dynamics of this matchup could shift the narrative. Playing at home, Foulquier has the chance to exploit Barcelona's vulnerable flanks, particularly when considering their defensive struggles this season. The model suggests he has a greater likelihood of taking a shot, with a predicted average of 0.57, reflecting an 18.8% edge. With Valencia needing to be aggressive against a high-profile opponent, Foulquier's role could see him push forward more than usual. When examining his past performances, he has hit the over in 8 of his last 20 home games, suggesting there's room for optimism. If he can find just one opportunity, this bet on Over 0.5 shots could very well land.
Wesley Fofana (Chelsea) Over 0.5 Shots on Target (+900)
Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing
As Arsenal prepares to host Chelsea, all eyes will be on Wesley Fofana, who, despite his recent stats not jumping off the page, is primed for a breakout moment. While his overall shots on target average stands at zero, it's worth noting that he’s been finding his footing in away games with an average of 0.6 shots per match. Fofana’s recent form hints at a player ready to make an impact, with a current hit streak that adds a layer of confidence to his game. When Chelsea faces off against Arsenal, the intensity of a London derby often opens up opportunities, and Fofana could capitalize on that. With the Gunners likely pushing forward, expect Fofana to exploit spaces and take a crack at goal. Given these factors, betting on him to register at least one shot on target feels like a compelling play.
Dimitri Foulquier (Valencia) Over 1.5 Shots (+1300)
Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing
As Valencia prepares to host Barcelona, all eyes will be on Dimitri Foulquier, a player who might just surprise us on the attacking front. While his recent stats show he’s been quiet, averaging just 0.4 shots per game overall and a mere 0.2 at home, this matchup could provide the spark he needs. Barcelona's high-press game often leaves space for quick counter-attacks, and Foulquier, with his pace and ability to venture forward, could capitalize on that. Valencia will be seeking to assert themselves against a formidable opponent, and Foulquier's role as an attacking full-back might see him push higher up the pitch, potentially leading to more shot opportunities. The odds are enticing for him to exceed 1.5 shots, especially given the right conditions. In a game filled with tension and urgency, look for him to step up and make his mark.
Rudy Matondo (Paris FC) Over 2.5 Shots (+1800)
Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing
Rudy Matondo might not be the first name that springs to mind, but there’s something brewing in this matchup against Marseille. While his recent averages of just 1 shot overall and 0.8 away might seem underwhelming, let’s dive deeper. Matondo’s pace and ability to stretch defenses mean he often finds himself in good positions—especially against a Marseille side that can leave space on the flanks. Moreover, with Paris FC likely needing to push for goals, Matondo will have more opportunities to fire off shots as the game progresses. Given the model’s prediction indicating a healthy edge for him to exceed 2.5 shots, it’s worth noting that he’s due for a breakout after a quiet spell. The stakes are high, and if he finds his rhythm early, we could see him tallying up those shots. Let's back him to go over 2.5 in what could be a thrilling encounter.
Levi Colwill (Chelsea) Yes Anytime Goalscorer (+3500)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
As we gear up for the London derby between Arsenal and Chelsea, Levi Colwill might not be the first name that pops into your head, but hear me out. Playing away from home, he’s carved out a niche as a sneaky threat. While his recent goal-scoring numbers might not dazzle—averaging just 0.2 away goals—his 0.4 shots per game suggest he’s getting into dangerous positions. Arsenal’s high-pressure style could see Chelsea's backline stretched, providing Colwill with opportunities to exploit gaps. With a hit rate of 1 in his last four away matches, he’s shown he can capitalize when the moment arises. At odds that reflect his potential, it feels like a savvy play to back him as an anytime goalscorer. In a game where every chance counts, he could be the wildcard that surprises both fans and opponents alike.
Diego Coppola (Paris FC) Over 0.5 Assists (+1700)
Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing
As Paris FC heads to Marseille, all eyes will be on Diego Coppola, a player who has the potential to surprise. While his recent assist numbers might not paint a rosy picture—averaging 0.2 assists in away matches—there’s something intriguing about this matchup. Marseille’s defense, while formidable, has shown cracks that skilled players can exploit, especially in high-pressure situations. Coppola’s creativity in midfield could be the key to unlocking those defensive gaps. Though he hasn’t hit his stride lately, players can find themselves in the right position when the game’s tempo shifts, and Marseille’s attacking style often leaves them vulnerable on counters. With his track record of key passes not reflecting his true potential, he could very well assist a goal or two, especially with Paris FC’s need to capitalize on every opportunity. Taking the Over 0.5 assists feels like a calculated risk worth taking.
That is the model's read on today's La Liga card. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.
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