Here are our AFL picks for Sunday 2 August 2026. Our model likes 6 bets here. The one it likes most is Kysaiah Pickett (Melbourne) Under 24.5 Disposals, priced at -116 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.
Kysaiah Pickett (Melbourne) Under 24.5 Disposals (-116)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
When it comes to Kysaiah Pickett and the Under 24.5 disposals mark, the numbers paint a clear picture. Despite his recent solid form, averaging 24.4 disposals over his last five away games, facing the Gold Coast Suns may disrupt his flow. In his last five matchups against them, he's only managed an average of 12.8 disposals. With a current contested possessions average of 10.2 and an overall disposal efficiency of 66.8%, Pickett's consistency remains a question mark. Add in the pressure of playing away, where his hit rate sits at 12/20, and the Under seems a smart play. Pickett's tendency to hover around the 20-disposal mark, combined with the Suns' historical containment of him, makes betting against a breakout game a wise move.
Joel Jeffrey (Gold Coast SUNS) Over 14.5 Disposals (-192)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Joel Jeffrey's recent form at People First Stadium makes him a prime target for hitting over 14.5 disposals against Melbourne. Averaging a solid 16.8 disposals over his last five home games, Joel showcases his ability to find the ball with ease. His 81.7% disposal efficiency and knack for gaining vital metres provide further confidence in his capability to meet this mark. Facing Melbourne, against whom he's averaged 13.8 disposals in his last encounters, Joel is poised to step up even more on home turf. With a model prediction of 19.8 disposals and a 19.8% edge, the odds are in our favor for Joel to dominate the midfield and snag this bet. Expect Joel Jeffrey to shine brightly and pile up the possessions come game day.
Archie Roberts (Essendon) Over 26.5 Disposals (-120)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
When it comes to Essendon's Archie Roberts, it's all about consistency and impact. With an L5 average of 29.6 disposals per game at home, he's been a midfield maestro, dictating play with precision. Roberts doesn't just collect possessions; his 77.9% disposal efficiency ensures they count. Against Adelaide, he's stepped up even more, averaging 19 disposals over his last five matchups. Marvel Stadium is his playground, where he's been racking up 20.8 kicks and 8.8 handballs per game lately. With a model predicting him to hit 29.7 disposals, comfortably above the line of 26.5, Roberts is poised to dominate the midfield battle once again. Bet on him to shine and surpass expectations on his home turf.
Archie Roberts (Essendon) Over 26.5 Disposals (-120)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
When it comes to backing a player prop bet, Archie Roberts stands out as a prime candidate to surpass the 26.5 disposals line against the Adelaide Crows at Marvel Stadium. Roberts has been a midfield maestro in his last five home games, averaging a whopping 29.6 disposals with an impressive 77.9% disposal efficiency. His ability to find space and rack up both kicks (20.8 avg) and handballs (8.8 avg) showcases his versatility on the field. Moreover, his recent form against this opponent has seen him exceed the 26.5 mark comfortably. With his knack for generating metres gained (490.8 avg) and creating turnovers (4.2 avg), Roberts is poised to be a pivotal figure in Essendon's midfield battle. Bet on Roberts to continue his stellar ball-winning form and snag a profit in the disposals market.
Mason Redman (Essendon) Over 16.5 Disposals (-141)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
When it comes to Mason Redman's performance on his home turf, the numbers speak volumes. Over his last five home games, he's been a midfield maestro, averaging 16.8 disposals, including a solid mix of 12.8 kicks and 4 handballs. What's more impressive is his consistency, boasting a superb disposalefficiency of 87.0%. Against the upcoming opponent, the Adelaide Crows, Redman has elevated his game, averaging 21 disposals in their recent encounters. With a knack for gaining meters (averaging 366.4 at home), he's a key player in Essendon's possession game. Redman's current form is solid too, with hit rates on the rise. With a line set at 16.5 disposals, backing Redman to surpass this mark seems like a safe bet given his recent trends and matchup history.
Archie Roberts (Essendon) Over 25.5 Disposals (-159)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
When it comes to reliable ball-handling and driving his team forward, Archie Roberts is the man to watch. In his last five home games, he's been a midfield maestro, averaging a whopping 29.6 disposals per match, well above the set line of 25.5. Roberts doesn't just accumulate possessions; he does so with precision, boasting a solid 77.9% disposal efficiency. Against the Adelaide Crows, he's been even more dominant, averaging 19 disposals in their previous encounters. With his recent form showing no signs of slowing down and his ability to find space and create opportunities, backing Roberts to surpass 25.5 disposals at Marvel Stadium is a smart bet. Keep your eyes on him to lead the charge for the Essendon Bombers this Sunday.
That is the model's read on today's AFL card. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.
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