Here are our EPL picks for Sunday 11 October 2026. Our model likes 6 bets here. The one it likes most is Hull City +1.25 Goal Handicap, priced at -208 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.
Odds correct at time of publishing
As Fulham welcomes Hull City, there's a compelling case for backing Hull City with a 1.25 handicap. Fulham's recent form at Craven Cottage has been dismal, with just one win in their last five home matches, averaging a mere 0.8 goals scored. In stark contrast, Hull has shown resilience on the road, collecting two wins and a draw in their last five away outings, scoring an average of 1.4 goals per game. Moreover, Fulham's defensive vulnerabilities are evident, allowing 1.4 goals on average over the same span. With Hull’s attack gradually finding rhythm and Fulham struggling to put the ball in the net consistently, it feels like Hull has the upper hand. The historical head-to-head also favors Hull, who’s unbeaten against Fulham in their last two encounters. The stars align for Hull City to at least avoid defeat here, making the 1.25 handicap a smart play.
Odds correct at time of publishing
As Hull City prepares to host Everton, there's a compelling case for backing the Tigers with a 0.75 handicap. Hull has shown resilience at home, boasting a solid 3-2-0 record in their last five matches, and they're enhancing their defensive game, allowing just 0.2 goals per home game recently. Conversely, Everton's away struggles are glaring, with a dismal 0-3-2 record and their scoring woes—averaging just 0.8 goals in their last five away outings—paint a stark picture. Hull's recent form reveals they're not just surviving; they’ve outscored opponents with a 1.2 average while limiting chances, suggesting they’re defensively sound and can exploit Everton’s vulnerabilities. The stats indicate Hull is primed to turn their home advantage into a decisive performance, making them a solid pick to cover that 0.75 line. Expect Hull to capitalize on their current form and leave Everton reeling.
Swansea City vs West Ham United: Swansea City Draw No Bet (+155)
Odds correct at time of publishing
As Swansea City prepares to take on West Ham, there’s a compelling case for backing the Swans in the Draw No Bet market. Recent form highlights Swansea's strong home record, going 3-2-0 in their last five, with an impressive average of 1.4 goals scored while conceding just 0.4 at home. Their ability to generate 11.8 shots per game indicates a proactive attacking approach. West Ham, while competitive, has shown vulnerabilities on the road, averaging 2 goals conceded in their last away outings. Their recent away form, marked by a 1-3-1 record, raises questions about their defensive stability. With Swansea's recent xG stats reflecting their attacking prowess and West Ham's inconsistency, a bet on Swansea feels like a smart play. They’re in good form at home and ready to capitalize on any defensive lapses from the Hammers.
Hull City vs Everton: Hull City +0.25 Goal Handicap (-105)
Odds correct at time of publishing
As Hull City prepares to host Everton, recent trends paint a promising picture for the home side. Hull's resilience at home is evident, racking up a solid 3-2-0 record in their last five at the MKM Stadium, where they've conceded a mere 0.2 goals per game. On the other hand, Everton's away struggles are telling—they haven’t won in their last five outings and are averaging just 0.8 goals scored on the road. When we dive into the underlying metrics, Hull's ability to create chances is apparent, averaging nearly 11.8 shots per game. If they can convert just a fraction of those into goals, they could easily edge out an Everton side that has been shaky defensively. Given these dynamics, backing Hull City at a +0.25 handicap feels like a savvy bet—especially with their home fortress seemingly intact against a flagging Everton side.
Atalanta BC vs Venezia: Over 9.5 Total Corners (+160)
Odds correct at time of publishing
As Atalanta prepares to host Venezia, the stage is set for an intriguing clash that suggests plenty of corner opportunities. Atalanta, known for their relentless attacking style, has been firing on all cylinders at home, while Venezia is struggling to find their footing, especially away from home. They’ve lost their last five matches without scoring, which only heightens Atalanta's chances of pushing the play and racking up corners. Venezia’s defensive woes, coupled with their inability to mount a cohesive attack—averaging a meager 0.8 goals and a paltry xG of 0—indicate they’ll likely be under siege. Atalanta, on the other hand, has a knack for corner kicks, often sending waves of pressure that lead to set pieces. With a home crowd behind them, this match could easily see the total corners surpass the 9.5 mark, making the 'Over' a compelling bet for this encounter.
Fulham vs Hull City: Hull City +1.5 Goal Handicap (-233)
Odds correct at time of publishing
As Fulham prepares to host Hull City, the signs point to a challenging outing for the home side. Fulham's recent form at home has been troubling, managing just one win in five and averaging a meager 0.8 goals per match. Their xG numbers tell a similar tale, hovering at a dismal zero, which raises eyebrows given their attacking potential. Meanwhile, Hull City comes into this clash with a more favorable away record, scoring an average of 1.4 goals in their last five away games. They’ve also demonstrated resilience, with a solid xG average, signaling a greater ability to convert chances. Historically, Hull has had the upper hand against Fulham, winning twice in their last five encounters. With Hull’s current upward momentum against Fulham’s downward spiral, backing Hull City with a 1.5 handicap looks like a savvy play.
That is the model's read on today's EPL card. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.
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